The Sacramento Kings return to the Golden 1 Center to begin a four-game homestand as they play host to the Portland Trail Blazers for the first time this season. Portland has claimed victory in each of the last three contests with Sacramento with an average winning margin of 15.67, but the Trail Blazers are just slight 1.5-point favorites in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 230 points.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of Sacramento’s last 10 games.
- Portland is 10-2 SU and 7-4-1 ATS in its last 12 games vs Sacramento.
- Sacramento is 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
Portland vs Sacramento Game Center
Kings remain one of the top scoring teams in the league
Sacramento continues to chug along this season, winning a few games, losing a few games, but each of those contests have been exciting if you like high-scoring basketball. The Kings are a very active team on the court with the second-highest pace of play, that forces their opponents to run up and down the court with them. This puts a ton of pressure on transition defense as they average the most fast-break points per game at 22.2, 2.3 points higher than the second-place Los Angeles Lakers.
Additionally, they create the third-most turnovers per game at 16.7 that has resulted in them scoring the second-most points off of turnovers in the league at 20.6. Over Sacramento’s last 15 games, it has racked up an average of 116.3 points per game which is the second-most in the association, but its defense hasn’t lived up to its end of the bargain as it is surrendered the fifth-most points per game over that span at 115.9.
The Kings allowed the seventh-most shot attempts against in December at 90.5 per game, however, over that span they only contested an average of 60.7 shots per game which were the sixth-fewest in the NBA and that resulted in their opponents shooting 48 percent from the floor, the fourth-highest percentage. Meanwhile, defensively they secured the fourth-fewest defensive boards over their last 15 games, which led to them allowing the second-most offensive rebounds and fourth-most second-chance points – not a good outlook as Portland scored the seventh-most second-chance points in its last 15 matches.
Trail Blazers struggling to find consistency
Portland is still trying to figure out what it is this year, having flashes of brilliance followed by games of mediocrity. This was extremely evident recently, when it went into Oracle Arena and beat Golden State 110-109 in overtime, but followed that up with a 115-105 defeat at home to the Warriors just two days later. Offensively, the Trail Blazers have had a much slower pace of play over their last 15 games than the Kings have had as they are averaging just 88.4 shots per game and have had the 13th-slowest pace of play. This methodical approach has led to scoring just 109.1 points per game which are the ninth-fewest in the NBA, while defensively they rank in the middle of the league surrendering 110.1 points per game.
One area of dominance that Portland has had over its last 15 matches is its play around the rim as it has limited its opponents to 43 rebounds per game which is the sixth-fewest while securing the ninth-most defensive boards and scoring the seventh-most second-chance points in the association. A bright spot in Sacramento’s attack mentioned above was its ability to create turnovers and score points off of those turnovers, well, Portland has averaged the 11th-most turnovers per game in its last 15 but has transitioned well defensively, giving up the fifth-fewest points off turnovers.
Is another OVER in store for the Kings?
Sacramento and OVERs go together like peanut butter and jelly this season and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 230 points. Portland has only gone OVER 230 points in three of its last nine games, but the majority of its points come from its guards in C.J. McCollum and Damian Lillard as the Trail Blazers average 64.9 points from their guards per game which is the fifth-most over the last 15 games. Meanwhile, Sacramento has given up the sixth-most points to guards over its last 15 contests at 61.9. The Blazers just dropped 129 points vs Philadelphia which gives up the most points to guards in the league over the last 15. Lastly, the Kings have gone OVER 230 points in nine of their last 10 games and I think a 10th is coming tonight.
My take on Portland vs Sacramento
I like the OVER 230 points in tonight’s game. Over the last 15 games, these two teams have ranked in the bottom half of the league for points allowed per game, with Sacramento surrendering the fifth-most and Portland giving up the 15th-most. Meanwhile, both teams get the majority of their offense from their guards, but also give up a lot of points to opposing guards. Lastly, the Kings have gone OVER 230 points in nine of their last 10 games, including their last four in a row and I think the Blazers are going to run with them and the OVER will come through again.
