The Portland Trail Blazers are celebrating their Christmas at the Vivint Smart Home Arena as they pay a visit to the Utah Jazz. These two teams met just four days ago at the Moda Center with Utah picking up an impressive 120-90 victory and Portland would love to play Grinch and steal a win away tonight. After that trouncing, the Jazz are a six-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 214 points.
- The total has gone UNDER in each of Utah’s last six games.
- Portland is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games on Christmas.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the last eight meetings between these two teams.
Defense continues to carry the Jazz to victory
Utah continues its win a couple games, lose a couple games as it has done all season, having no streak, one way or the other, go beyond four games. Things have been going well recently for the Jazz, though, as they had a narrow 102-97 defeat to Houston just over a week ago followed by back-to-back wins over Golden State and at Portland, while in their last game they were edged 107-106 by Oklahoma City. This year, Utah is averaging 106.9 points per game which is the eighth-fewest in the association, but that rises to 110.6 at home which is still the 10th-fewest.
However, it isn’t the offense that is paving the path to the victory, it is the defense that is really impressive. Utah surrenders just 105.9 points per game which is the sixth-fewest in the NBA and it does this by limiting its opponents’ second chances, giving up the fourth-fewest second-chance points at 11.5. The Jazz reduce these second opportunities by allowing their foes to grab the fewest offensive rebounds in the league at just 8.9 per game. Lastly, they only allow 85.8 shots against per game which is the sixth-fewest as well as the second-fewest three-point attempts against at 27.4.
Trail Blazers have been playing good ball lately
Portland heads into this game having won six of its last nine, including four of its last five, falling only to Utah over that span. Additionally, the Trail Blazers have played with holiday cheer during Christmas day games, holding a record of 14-3, the second-best win percentage in the NBA, however, this is the first time they’ve played on December 25 since 2010. On the season, Portland ranks 12th in the league with 111.4 points per game, while sitting 16th in points allowed at 110.7.
There’s likely going to be quite the battle under the rim for this game, as Portland secures the third-most rebounds per game in the league, including the eighth-most offensive boards. The Trail Blazers center Jusuf Nurkic averages 10.2 boards per game which are the 15th-most, but Jazz center Rudy Gobert secures 12.3 rebounds per game which are the seventh-most in the league. Defensively, they allow their opponents to take 90.3 shots per game, the ninth-most, but they don’t make the shots easy as they contest 68.8 of those attempts which is the third-most. Lastly, Portland has the 11th-slowest pace of play which plays right into the hands of Utah.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
The UNDER has been a strong play for both Utah and Portland recently and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 214 points. The Jazz have gone UNDER in each of their last six games with an average combined score of 202.17 with no game going OVER 214 points. Meanwhile, the total has gone UNDER in seven of the Trail Blazers’ last 10 games with only four games going OVER 214 points. Lastly, both teams rank in the bottom half of the league for pace of play, fully using the shot clock that limits the amount scoring and I think the UNDER is the smart play.
My take on Portland vs Utah
I like the UNDER 214 points for this Christmas day game. Both teams have been hitting UNDERs frequently and I don’t see why it won’t happen again. In addition to the points above, Portland and Utah have gone UNDER in six of their last eight meetings with an average combined score of 198.86. I think there will be quite the battle in the paint between Jusuf Nurkic and Rudy Gobert and offensive boards and second chances will be hard to come by, furthering a solid UNDER play. Lastly, in the last 15 games on Christmas day, the UNDER has hit in 10 of them and Portland and Utah are going to make it 11.
