The Oklahoma City Thunder return home with their tail between their legs after dropping their first two games of the season and will look to get an easy victory over the visiting Sacramento Kings. The Thunder have struggled without Russell Westbrook and allowed 108 points to both the Warriors and Clippers. The Kings, on the other hand, will try to win their first game at Chesapeake Energy Arena since January 2016.
The Thunder opened as 9.5-point favorites to get the W with a total of 215.
- Oklahoma City ranks 28th in three-point field goal percentage.
- The Kings are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs the Thunder.
- The UNDER has hit in 7 the Kings’ last 10 road games vs the Thunder.
Thunder Lacking Electricity from Deep
Obviously, the absence of Russell Westbrook plays heavily into how the Thunder performs offensively but their inefficiency from three-point range is a glaring issue. OKC shot 8 for 34 (23 percent) from deep through two games this season which ranks 28th in the NBA. It’s would be easy to say, “it’s early” and to dismiss that stat but considering the Thunder were ranked 24th in three-point percentage last season, this has been an ongoing concern for OKC backers. As of this writing, Westbrook is leaning to play tonight but even if he does suit up, he may be limited due to offseason knee surgery.
The Thunder fell flat in their last game vs the Clippers as they were outscored 37-15 in the fourth quarter and this is the first time they’ve started 0-2 since the 2014-15 season. Paul George and Dennis Schroder will need to pick it up offensively as they’ve combined to shoot a woeful 24 for 84 from the field (28 percent) through two games.
The value on the Thunder moneyline may be minimal but that doesn’t mean it’s not a winning wager. Oklahoma City has won 17 of its last 18 home games when hosting Sacramento however it failed to cover in 10 of those games so it may be best to steer clear of the OKC spread until they prove they can be reliable on that front.
Kings have Been Sneaky Spread Bet in OKC
The mayor of the NBA basement, the Sacramento Kings have players I like at every position but they don’t seem to translate on the defensive end. The Kings are ranked dead-last in points allowed per game this season (134 per game) after ranking near the middle of the pack last season and has allowed 29 threes on only 58 attempts, which also ranks last in the league.
No one will be making a case for any players on Sacramento to make All-NBA defensive teams anytime soon but this plucky squad has been a sly wager to cover the spread in this matchup. The Kings are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs the Thunder and were dogs of 10 points or more in seven of those games. They’ve also gone 11-9 ATS in their last 20 road games as a dog of nine points or more so a case can be made for the Kings spread tonight.
UNDER May Be The Best Play
The total opened at 215 and the UNDER looks to the profitable angle in this one. The UNDER has hit in seven of the last 10 games in this matchup when played in OKC with an average combined score of 199.4 points per game. Although it’s a small sample size, the UNDER has also hit in both of the Thunder’s games this season with an average combined score of 204 points per game.
My Pick is…
To take the UNDER. Both of these teams seem to be out of sync early in the season and the Thunder’s woes from three-point range have hampered their offense. If the UNDER doesn’t appeal to you, the Kings spread is also appealing.
