The Denver Nuggets took one on the chin last night vs the Warriors and will need to regroup on their home court when they face the San Antonio Spurs tonight. The Nuggets have all but assured the Warriors getting the top spot in the West and Denver could be in danger of falling to third with the Rockets on their heels. The Spurs, on the other hand, are also on a back-to-back and have gotten smoked on the road in that spot at 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS in eight games this season.
The Nuggets opened at 5.5-point favorites (since moved to -4.5) with a total of 213.
STANDOUT STATS
- The Nuggets have been one of the best teams at home this season at 31-7 SU and 23-15 ATS in 38 games. At home, they rank third in points allowed per game (104.2) and first in opponent three-point percentage (32.2 percent) on 32 attempts (rated 17th).
- Since the all-star break, the Nuggets have gone 6-3 SU in nine home games but have failed to cover the spread at the Pepsi Center in five of their last six in Denver. They have a +10.3 point differential in home games this season but since the break, that differential has decreased to +5.3.
- The Nuggets have been pretty decent when on the second game of a back-to-back. In that spot, the Nuggets are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS. When those games were played at home, Denver went 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS and only one of those wins was by more than five points.
- The Spurs are also on the second game of a back-to-back tonight and have not fared as well in that scenario. They’re 4-7 SU and 6-5 ATS but when those games are on the road, it’s even worse – San Antonio is 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS with five of those losses by double digits.
- Since the all-star break, the Spurs’ offense hasn’t been as efficient shooting the three. San Antonio for the season is averaging 39.5 percent from behind the arc but that mark drops to 35.6 since the break. That might not seem like a huge drop-off but the Spurs are a bottom-three team in three-point attempts so the margin for error is low.
- There are an overwhelming number of UNDER trends coming into this matchup. The UNDER has hit in 17 of the Nuggets’ last 20 games (avg. combined score: 213.4) while the UNDER has also hit in 13 of the Spurs’ last 17 games (avg. combined score: 214.7). When these teams face Western Conference foes, UNDERs also tend to follow, hitting in the Spurs’ last seven games vs the West and in 11 of the Nuggets’ last 13 games vs the West.
My Best Bet for Spurs vs Nuggets
UNDER 213
I heavily considered taking the Nuggets to win and cover because they have been machines at the Pepsi Center but I think the smarter play is to take the UNDER. Both teams rank in the 20s for pace and have not been taking as many shots per game lately, which should make this a grind-it-out game with playoff implications.
Both teams are coming off a back-to-back, which means they might be a bit gassed. When you factor in that both of the last two games in this matchup fell short of 210 points, it makes the decision far easier.
