After pulling off a stunner by stealing Game 1 vs the Denver Nuggets, the San Antonio Spurs will try to pull off another upset to take a commanding 2-0 lead in the first-round series. The Spurs held the Nuggets to 96 points and played suffocating defense on Nikola Jokic to limit him to 10 points. The Spurs are hoping their playoff pedigree will pace them again at the Pepsi Center as only one player on the Nuggets roster had postseason experience prior to Game 1.
The Nuggets opened as 7-point favorites with a total of 208.
STANDOUT STATS
- Although the Nuggets got decent scoring from their starters (74 points), they got almost no help from their bench and Nikola Jokic was held to only 10 points by the Spurs. San Antonio limited the Nuggets to 21.4 percent shooting from behind the arc compared to the 36 percent they averaged in home games this season.
- Coming into Game 1, the Spurs were the best three-point shooting team in the NBA (39.2 percent) and second-best shooting team from the field (47.8 percent). What’s most surprising about those numbers is they rank 17th in total shot attempts per game, which means that the Spurs are taking efficient shots in Gregg Popovich’s system. In Game 1, they took five fewer shots than their season average (88.4) and hit 48 percent from the field and 42 percent from behind the arc.
- The Nuggets were one of the best home teams in the NBA this season at 34-7 SU and 25-16 ATS and beat the Spurs twice at the Pepsi Center during the regular season. In those games, the Nuggets held a commanding double-digit lead at halftime and scored 61 first-half points each time.
- The Spurs were not a great road team during the regular season as they ranked 20th in scoring defense (114 points per game) and allowed opponents to shoot 47.6 percent from the floor (ranked 24th). They also gave up the sixth-most three-pointers in those outings.
- A lot of trends coming into this matchup support the game falling short of the total. The UNDER has hit in six of the Spurs’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 212.1) with two of those games being played at the Pepsi Center. The UNDER has also hit in seven of the Spurs’ last eight road games. The UNDER has also hit in the last five games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 203.4).
My Best Bets for Spurs vs Nuggets
OVER 208 and Spurs +7
There are so many UNDER trends coming into Game 2 that I’m almost inclined to take the OVER because oddsmakers have driven down the total. At 208, this would be the lowest closing total in the last seven games in this matchup and I’m skeptical the Nuggets will be held to fewer than 100 points again on their home floor.
The Nuggets should bounce back and head coach Mike Malone will devise a scheme to get Nikola Jokic more involved after he only took seven shots in Game 1. I also think the Spurs are far too competitive to lose by eight or more points and they should be able to keep this game within single digits due to their efficient shooting from the likes of Derrick White and Bryn Forbes, so the Spurs should also cover the spread.
