Resting key players isn’t anything new for the San Antonio Spurs and they’re hoping that giving LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan the night off yesterday should put them in the driver’s seat to top the Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs got pumped by 39 points without their star duo vs the Warriors last night and have failed to cover the spread in their last five games. The Blazers, on the other hand, are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games and have covered in six of their last seven games at home.
The Blazers opened as 5.5-point faves with a total of 227.5.
- The Spurs are allowing an average of 120 points per game over their last 10.
- The Blazers are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at home.
- The total has gone OVER in the Spurs’ last five games on the road (avg. combined score: 238.6).
Spurs’ Defense has Been Non-Existent Lately
Although the Spurs have a foundation of solid defense and ball movement, the defense has not been up to snuff lately despite the winning record. San Antonio is 6-4 SU in its last 10 games but is allowing teams to score over 120 points per contest, including 141 points in last night’s outing vs the Warriors.
The Spurs purposely rested LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan last night and when on the second game of a back-to-back, they’re 3-6 SU in nine games and only one of those wins has come on the road, vs the Clippers.
I’m not high on the Spurs’ chances to win this game mainly because of how poor their defense has been and it’s not like Aldridge and DeRozan are making an All-NBA defensive team any time soon. They’ll also be without Derrick White, who has been their main point guard this season. That could hamper the Spurs’ offense, considering he averages over 15 points per game and 47 percent from three-point range.
Blazers’ Home Dominance Hard To Overlook
Even the best NBA teams have a clunker at home and I’m willing to chalk up the Blazers’ last home loss to the Heat as just that. Portland has been stellar on its home floor this season and has gone 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in the last nine games at the Moda Center.
The Blazers are also expected to get some help at small forward for this matchup as recently acquired Rodney Hood is expected to make his Portland debut and can only help a Blazers squad that has a +8.3-point differential at home this season.
I fully expect Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to run wild tonight as the Spurs are ranked 21st in stopping opposing guards by allowing an average of 58.6 points per game to backcourts. There are just too many red flags for the Spurs tonight to fade the Blazers in this one.
OVER ALERT
The total opened at 226.5 and trends are pointing heavily to a scorefest in Portland tonight. The OVER has hit in the Spurs’ last five road games with an average combined score of 238.6 points per game. As for the Blazers, the OVER has hit in their last five games with an average combined score of 235.
My Pick Is…
To take the Blazers to win and cover the spread. They’re just too good at home for me to fade them in this spot and the Spurs’ defense has been atrocious over their last 10 games. If you can’t decide on a winner, the OVER would also be worth the wager because of the poor defenses and efficient offenses on both sides of the floor.
