San Antonio and Sacramento are two of the four teams in the NBA that have more than 30 ATS wins to their credit at this point in the season. One of these teams will add to that total tonight (unless we get a soul-crushing PUSH). San Antonio is 27-3 SU in its last 30 games against Sacramento and had won 14 in a row before the Kings won the first meeting this season 104-99 in November. This game opened as a pick’em, but action on the Spurs has the line up to -2 at the time of this article. The total is at 227.5.
- The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Kings’ last 13 games (avg. combined score: 216.92).
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Spurs’ last six games (avg. combined score: 239.17).
- The Kings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games at home.
First of Eight on the Rodeo Road trip for San Antonio
As the San Antonio Stock Show and Rodeo takes over AT&T Center for the next three weeks, the Spurs head out on a lengthy eight-gamer that will take them through three time zones and two countries before they play at home again on February 27.
San Antonio will be without starting point guard Derrick White for tonight’s game – White was ruled out with heel soreness and is listed as questionable for Wednesday at Golden State. In his absence, expect Patty Mills to up his minutes, although that shouldn’t be too much of a change for Mills as he is routinely over 20 minutes per night.
Additionally, White missed a stretch of 10 games earlier in the season and the Spurs were quite successful without him, going 7-3 SU, with Mills filling in admirably. The returning Lonnie Walker should also benefit from increased playing time.
Watch for the Battle Under the Boards
One of the things that drives me crazy in today’s NBA is the reluctance of teams to get after offensive rebounds. A guy like LaMarcus Aldridge could potentially have a field day tonight on the offensive glass.
In their last 15 games, the Kings are 29th in the league in opponents’ second-chance points and 21st in defensive rebounds. Look for Pop to try to expose this in the game-planning. Over the same stretch, San Antonio is scoring 55.3 percent of its points on two-point shots (T-10th) and shooting 42.9 percent from beyond the arc (1st).
My best bet For Tonight
I played Spurs moneyline at -120 as the spread pays marginally better at -110 but leaves some things to chance. I’m also going to search around for a Patty Mills point prop and if it’s around his 9.7 ppg season average, I will take the OVER.
