The trade of Jimmy Butler seems to have elevated the play of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have won six of their last eight games since the deal and will try to win their fourth game in a row when they host the San Antonio Spurs. The T-Wolves will face a stiff test compared to the last three teams they’ve beaten (Cavs, Bulls and Nets) as they have dropped 14 of the last 15 games in this matchup dating back to 2014.
The Timberwolves opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 217.
- The Spurs are 14-1 SU and 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games in this matchup.
- The Timberwolves are 6-2 SU and ATS since the Jimmy Butler trade.
- The UNDER has hit in 12 of the Timberwolves’ last 13 games (avg. combined score: 211.3).
Spurs vs Timberwolves Game Center
Will the Spurs Continue to Own this Matchup?
San Antonio may not strike fear into the opposition like in years past and performances this season have been very un-Spurs-like. The Spurs defense used to be their calling card but they’re allowing teams to shoot 47 percent from the field, which ranks 27th in the NBA, and giving up 110.1 points per game. Where they still resemble the dominant San Antonio teams of old is taking care of the ball, as the Spurs lead the NBA in fewest turnovers, which means they don’t beat themselves.
Historically, the Spurs have owned this matchup, winning 14 of the last 15 games vs the T-Wolves and covering the spread in 11 of those games. If you isolate it to playing at the Target Center, the Spurs are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games in the Twin Cities.
I’m likely fading the Spurs in this one mainly because this isn’t the same team that won five championships since 1999. Their defense has been suspect and they’re 2-5 SU in their last seven road games.
T-Wolves are Balling Without Butler
Going 6-2 SU in an eight-game stretch is kind of interesting but not exactly a huge accomplishment. Winning those games after cutting ties with one of the top 20 players in the NBA? Now you’ve got my attention. The Timberwolves have looked completely rejuvenated after the exodus of Jimmy Butler and have climbed back to 10-11 SU in 21 games after a dismal start.
Karl-Anthony Towns is starting to show the full potential of being the No. 1 overall draft pick back in 2015. He’s averaging 26 points and 14.3 rebounds and with his ability to hit the three is able to stretch the floor to allow other pieces like Andrew Wiggins and Dario Saric to operate. Head coach Tom Thibodeau has got their defense humming as they’re only allowing 100.3 points per game since Butler’s departure.
I’m all-in on the Timberwolves to win and cover the spread tonight as I think the Spurs will have a tough time matching up with Towns, Wiggins and Minnesota’s supporting cast. Another reason I like the T-Wolves is they’re 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games when a favorite of 4.5 points or less.
UNDER ALERT For Totals Bettors
The total opened at 217 and the Minnesota Timberwolves have been the best UNDER bet in the NBA this season. The UNDER has hit in 12 of their last 13 games with an average combined score of 211.3 and their overall O/U record this season is 6-15 in 21 games. Isolating the Timberwolves’ last seven games, the UNDER has hit in each contest with an average combined score of 203.4.
My Pick Is...
To take the UNDER. There is just too much data to support an UNDER in this matchup and with the way these two teams play defense, I expect a low-scoring affair in the Twin Cities.
