After an ugly home loss that saw them put up only 86 points, the Sacramento Kings will look to regroup when they host the San Antonio Spurs. The Kings are wrapping up a four-game homestand in which they’ve averaged just over 100 points in the first three games and gone 1-2 SU and ATS. The Spurs, on the other hand, are coming off a nice home win vs the Rockets and have won an astounding 14 straight games vs the Kings with an average win margin of 12.3 points per game.
The Spurs opened as 3-point favorites with a total of 218.
- The Spurs are 14-0 SU and 8-5-1 ATS in the last 14 games vs the Kings.
- Sacramento ranks 26th in points allowed per game (116.8).
- The UNDER has hit in the Kings’ last 5 games at home (avg. combined score: 210.8).
Will the Spurs’ Dominance over the Kings Continue?
November 15, 2014. That’s how far back in OddsShark’s database you have to go to find a regular-season win for the Kings over the Spurs. Since then, it’s been nothing but winning for San Antonio as it’s won 14 straight games against Sacramento while going 8-5-1 against the spread and winning each game by an average of 12.3 points.
The Spurs’ defense continues to be their calling card as they rank eighth in points allowed per game (107.9) while leading the NBA in fewest turnovers per game (11.9). Where San Antonio is falling short is in the scoring department as it ranks second-last in three-point attempts per game (24.2) and in today’s NBA, that’s an archaic model with the league average at 32.2.
I still like the Spurs to cover the 3-point spread given how they’ve owned this matchup and the fact that they’ve won each of the last 14 games in this matchup by no fewer than five points.
The Kings’ Defense is fit for a Pauper
Although Sacramento is on a nice run to start the season at 7-6 SU and 8-4-1 ATS, the main reason why they’re still the same old Kings is how poor their defense has been this season. The Kings are ranked 26th in points allowed per game (116.8) while allowing teams to shoot 45 percent from the floor.
However, where Sac-Town has improved is from within as point guard De’Aaron Fox has stepped up his game across the board by averaging 18.7 points per game with 7.1 assists and 4.5 rebounds. This could be a matchup the Kings could exploit as the Spurs are woefully thin at guard outside of DeMar DeRozan.
Although the Kings have been one of the better spread bets this season, I can’t endorse them to cover against the Spurs due to their recent track record. If it was closer to +7 or more, then I’d consider Sacramento tonight.
UNDER Bettors Cashing In when Kings at Home
The total opened at 218 and the UNDER may be the best play in this matchup. The UNDER has hit in the Kings’ last five games at home with an average combined score of 210.8 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in four of the Spurs’ last five games with an average combined score of 201.8 points per game.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER 218. The Spurs’ scoring is way down and they don’t average enough three-pointers for my liking to feel comfortable taking an OVER. Their defense could also be a problem for Sacramento, which means expecting a shootout could be a tough proposition for OVER bettors.
