I've got NBA Summer League Championship expert picks as we've reached the NBA's 2024 Las Vegas Summer League final between the Memphis Grizzlies vs Miami Heat.
Here's a look at my moneyline, spread, and total picks prior to a Summer League champion being crowned on Monday, July 22, 2024.
Past NBA Summer League Expert Picks
| Bet | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 5-2 | 0.99 |
| Spread | 3-4 | -1.21 |
| OVER/UNDER | 2-4 | -1.21 |
| Overall | 10-10 | -0.82 |
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Miami Heat
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Memphis Grizzlies | -2.5 (-108) | -144 | O 188.5 (-108) |
| Miami Heat | +2.5 (-112) | +118 | U 188.5 (-112) |
Expert Pick: Miami Heat ATS +2.5 (-112) OR Miami Heat ML (+118)
Statistically, there's no reason to doubt the Heat can't take this game, and at plus money, it's really a no-brainer.
Throughout this competition, no team has scored more points (104.8 per game, first overall), shot better from the field (50.7 percent, first overall), shot better from 3-point range (44.5 percent, first overall), distributed the rock better (23.8 assists per game, first overall), or outscored the opposition by a greater margin (17.2 points plus-minus, first overall) than Miami.
Now that's not meant to downplay the Grizzlies, as they're the betting favorites for a reason. However, despite possessing the likes of GG Jackson and Scotty Pippen Jr., not having Zach Edey, Cam Spencer, and perhaps even Jake LaRavia for this game will sting on the second night of a back to back. The Grizzlies also just ran their starters into the ground simply to hold off the Los Angeles Clippers in the semifinals on Sunday, with three starters playing over 33 minutes and only one second-unit player totalling double-digit playing time.
Miami is deeper and can beat you in a variety of ways, with Josh Christopher, Kel'el Ware, Pelle Larsson, and Isaiah Stevens all capable of putting up points in a hurry. Memphis is going to have to lean heavily on Jackson, Pippen Jr., and Jaylen Wells once again, and that may be too much, too soon versus a Heat squad loaded with weapons.
Expert Pick: OVER 188.5 Total Points (-108)
Even on tired on legs, we're still looking at the two highest-scoring rosters in Sin City and the only two which averaged over 100 points per contest.
Each semifinal matchup also exceeded 197 points, as well. I don't anticipate the Finals to be a slog by any stretch, so this could end up being one of the rarer games of Summer League in which both sides score in the triple digits.
Take the OVER here and enjoy the show.
