The Denver Nuggets are the slight betting favorites at BetMGM as they open their 2024-25 regular season on Thursday night against the visiting Oklahoma City Thunder in what's a potential preview of the Western Conference finals.
I've lined up my expert betting picks for this colossal matchup, covering moneyline, spread, total, and player props for you to tail if you deem fit.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
Preview: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +2.5 (-110) | +120 | O 225.5 (-110) |
| Denver Nuggets | -2.5 (-110) | -142 | U 225.5 (-110) |
Odds as of October 23, 2024 at FanDuel
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Expert Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder ATS +2.5 (-110), ML (+120)
This will be one of those rare instances in which the Thunder enter a matchup as a betting underdog, even more so than this past season when they were 9-8-1 covering the spread when not favored away from home.
The Nuggets are a proven commodity in their backyard, not just from a talent perspective, but because Denver's reputation for being a tough place to compete with its high altitude has sustainability. They went 33-8 SU at Ball Arena, tied for the second-best overall record at home, although two of those losses did come at the hands of Oklahoma City.
In those victories for the Thunder, they scored at least 118 points on each occasion and even blew out the Nuggets by 26 points on Dec. 29, 2023 by a final score of 119-93. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 40 points that night, averaging 26.3 across the four matchups while shooting just under 45 percent from the field.
Not having Isaiah Hartenstein (fractured hand) in the frontcourt is a blow to Oklahoma City's chances of attempting to stifle reigning Most Valuable Player Nikola Jokic, which is already easier said than done. Their chances hinge on being able to lock down everyone else, and with Jamal Murray carrying over his inefficient play from Paris to the preseason, converting just 12 of his 32 shot attempts, at least stopping him could be the ingredient towards the Thunder starting off their bid towards repeating as the No. 1 seed in the West on the right foot.
UNDER 225.5 Total Points (-110)
Oklahoma City and Denver were on complete opposite ends of the OVER/UNDER market this past season, with the Nuggets finishing dead last at 35-47 by reaching the OVER just 42.7 percent of the time. The Thunder, on the other hand, did so 55.7-percent of the time for the fourth-best hit rate across the Association.
All four meetings between these juggernauts also failed to hit the OVER, as well, so I'm looking for that trend to continue here in what's the first action for both teams.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Player Prop
Jamal Murray UNDER 19.5 Points (-104)
As mentioned earlier, Murray has continued struggling with his shot and is raising massive red flags over whether or not he can continue being the Robin to Jokic's Batman with the goal of bringing another championship to the Mile High City.
The Thunder have a treasure's trove of guards and wings to make Murray's life miserable, and that was already the case prior to the team trading for Alex Caruso this summer. Murray also hit the UNDER on 19.5 points all four times versus Oklahoma City in 2023-24 with a true shooting percentage below 50 percent.
Jokic may seemingly be immune to getting rattled, but Murray absolutely can be. It's going to be a miserable Thursday opener for the Canadian guard.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Trends
- The Thunder are 17-8 against the spread in their last 25 games versus top-10 scoring defenses.
- Nikola Jokic has exceeded 39.5 points + rebounds in seven of his last eight games at home, averaging 45 pts + reb during that span.
- The UNDER hit in eight of the Nuggets' last 12 games excluding the preseason.
