The Miami Heat are back into playoff position in the Eastern Conference and sit at an even 16-16 SU ahead of Wednesday’s home matchup with the Toronto Raptors. Sportsbooks opened the Heat as 5-point home underdogs with a total of 209.5.
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
- The Raptors are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings with the Heat in Miami.
- The UNDER is 5-0 in the Heat’s last five home games.
Heat are in fine form right now
Miami is riding a season-high five-game winning streak after topping the Orlando Magic 115-91 in its last outing. The Heat shot 50.6 percent from the field in the contest, including 16-for-31 from three-point range, while forcing 19 turnovers. Guard Josh Richardson leads the club in scoring with 18.5 points per game and recorded his first double-double of the campaign (15 points, 10 rebounds) vs the Magic.
Toronto was without three of its top five scorers on Saturday when it suffered a 126-101 loss to Philadelphia to open a three-game road trip that ends in Orlando on Friday. Kawhi Leonard, who leads the team in scoring, is averaging 30.5 points over his last four games but was rested on Saturday. Forward Serge Ibaka (knee) missed his third straight game and center Jonas Valanciunas will be out for a few more weeks. Ibaka was questionable to play tonight as of this writing.
Raptors haven’t been covering in Florida
The Heat have turned into an excellent spread bet when playing at home, as Miami has covered in four of its past five home games entering the tilt. Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its past five trips to South Beach, so the Raptors may be a risky play in this one.
As far as the total is concerned, the Heat have been a sharp UNDER play of late. Nine of Miami’s previous 12 games have gone UNDER the total, and all of the Heat’s past five home games have cashed UNDER bets.
My pick: take the UNDER
I think this game is going to be closer than oddsmakers think as the Heat are playing excellent basketball right now, but I’m going to take the UNDER instead of making a spread pick. The Heat’s penchant for going UNDER at home is well documented and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
