Short-handed Raptors Road Dogs Against Heat

The Heat have been nearly unbeatable at home, but lately they’ve struggled to get wins in the ATS column. They’ll look to fix that against a short-handed Raptors team that Miami has recently owned ATS — both at home and in general.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Heat opened as 5-point favorites, as they are a dominant 15-1 SU at home this year, 5-2 ATS in their last seven at home against Toronto and 7-2 ATS in their last nine overall against the Raptors — and Toronto is still without Pascal Siakam, Marc Gasol and Norman Powell. The Raptors are getting by with gritty defensive efforts, but with Miami being all about offense right now and each of their last seven matchups going OVER, it’s surprising to see the total for this game open so low at 216 points.

Toronto News & Notes

The Raptors may have ended 2019 with a strong 117-97 victory over the hapless Cavaliers on Tuesday, but there’s no denying that Toronto is starting to feel the effects of limping into 2020.

With leading scorer and star Pascal Siakam as well as key players Marc Gasol and Norman Powell out indefinitely with injuries, Toronto has hit a bit of a slump in losing three of its last five games.

The good news is, with a team that is ranked second in defensive rating, while being led by savvy veterans in Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Serge Ibaka, Toronto has stayed competitive, going 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests.

The only recent ugly defeat for Toronto was a poor showing on Christmas Day against Boston, but the Raptors will have their hands full Thursday. They’re playing a Miami team that not only has the league’s best record at home, but the Raptors are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games at AmericanAirlines Arena.

Miami News & Notes

Miami may possess the league’s best home record with a sparkling 15-1 ledger but has been struggling ATS recently. The Heat have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven contests, including three straight home games and four consecutive games overall.

What makes the Heat so difficult to beat at home is an offense firing on all cylinders. They’re second in the NBA in offensive rating at home, powered by a deep roster that features seven players averaging in double figures, five of them at or above 15.8 points per game.

Led by a deep backcourt featuring Jimmy Butler, Kendrick Nunn, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro, Miami will look to get back in the ATS win column against a Toronto squad that has covered the spread in only two of its last nine games against the Heat — and is missing three of its most important players.

Betting Pick: Heat -5

The Raptors fight and compete every night, but Miami seems to have their number. Add in being at home and Toronto’s injuries … and I see the Heat covering.