The NBA-leading Toronto Raptors hit the road for a quick trip to Tennessee when they take on the plucky Memphis Grizzlies. The Raptors sit at 17-4 SU in 21 games this season and are an impressive 8-2 SU in 10 road games this year. The Grizz, on the other hand, are holding their own in a competitive Western Conference and sit pretty at 7-2 SU and ATS in nine home games this season.
The Raptors opened as 4.5-point favorites with a total of 206.5.
- The Grizzlies are 7-2 SU and ATS in 9 home games this season.
- The Raptors are third in the NBA in scoring this season (116.8).
- The OVER has hit in the Raptors’ last three games.
Raptors vs Grizzlies Game Center
Grizzlies’ Defense On Full Display This Season
Coming into this season, the Grizzlies weren’t expected to make an impact in the standings and were pegged to finish outside of the playoffs for the second year in a row. Analysts felt that Mike Conley and Marc Gasol wouldn’t stay healthy and their core wasn’t strong enough to compete. Well, they must feel like a tweet from Old Takes Exposed will be coming their way soon because the Grizz are the best defensive team in the NBA, holding teams to 100.9 points per game and ranking fifth in opponent field-goal percentage.
FedExForum isn’t exactly known as a basketball hotbed by any stretch but Memphis has been taking care of business at home this season at 7-2 SU and ATS, including convincing wins over the Jazz, Sixers and Nuggets. Dating back to last season, the Grizzlies have gone 10-2 ATS in 12 home games and are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
I’m liking the Grizz to win and cover the spread in this one as I think they have two players in Conley and Gasol who will be difficult for the Raptors to stop. This has the feeling of a trap game for the Raptors and I’m happy to fade them in this one.
Teams Finding Difficulty Stopping Raptors’ Offense
Averaging just under 117 points per game, this iteration of Toronto’s offense may be the best in its brief history. The Raps are second in field-goal percentage (48.8 percent) and have five players averaging double figures, including their two likely all-stars in Kawhi Leonard and Kyle Lowry. The duo is combining for just over 40 points per game but PF Serge Ibaka may be having his best season yet. Ibaka is averaging 16.3 points, eight rebounds and just under two blocks per game, which are near his career highs.
The Raptors have yet to lose on the road to a Western Conference team this season and are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games as a fave of 4.5 points or more. But there are some conflicting trends for Toronto when it comes to playing Memphis and West teams. For starters, the Dinos are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games at FedExForum and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs Western Conference teams.
Due to the conflicting trends and considering how sneaky-good the Grizz are, I’m banking on them to come up big and hold serve at home.
Low Total Gives Bettors a Tough Choice to Make
The total opened at 206.5 and although the Grizzlies have been a great defensive team this season, this total is too low for an NBA game in 2018. The OVER has hit in the Raptors’ last three games with an average combined score of 234.6 points per game. I know the trends and stats would point to an UNDER, but taking an OVER in this game is just too easy.
My Pick Is…
To take the OVER. I think the Grizz can win this game but the OVER feels like more of a lock than Memphis pulling off the upset. The Raptors offense should carry the load for this wager and if the Grizzlies keep it close, it will likely be because there is a lot of scoring in the matchup.
