The Toronto Raptors are tied with the Golden State Warriors as the top team in the NBA through 11 games and arrive in Sacramento on the tail end of a four-game western swing. Sacramento has been one of the best bets in the NBA so far this season, going 7-3 ATS and winning five of eight games SU as the underdog. Toronto opens as an 8.5-point favorite with the total Sportsbook at 225 but jumping to 231.5 very quickly.
- The Raptors are 3-16 SU and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games on the road vs the Kings.
- Toronto and Sacramento are a combined 15-6 O/U this season.
- The OVER has hit in five of the Kings’ last seven games.
Two of the NBA’s Top Six Offenses
Toronto is averaging 117.4 points per game while Sacramento is averaging 118.7 points per game so far this season. It’s a little surprising, then, that the total opened relatively low at 225 for this game, but unsurprising that the line moved so quickly.
Toronto has been one of the best OVER bets in the league, going 8-3 O/U. The Kings have been cashing OVERs too – they have a 7-3 O/U record. Early action has seen savvy bettors jump on the low total and push it up into the 230s.
Kings Have Been Allowing a Ton of Points
While the Kings have been able to tickle the twine with the best of them, Sacramento has the No. 26 scoring defense in the NBA, allowing 119.3 points per game. Four of the Kings’ previous five games have gone well over 231.5 points with an average combined score of 144.5.
In addition, Toronto is shooting 49.3 percent from the floor, the fourth-best mark in the NBA, and is getting contributions from up and down the roster with Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka and Kawhi Leonard all averaging over 17 points per game and a total of seven players averaging double-digit points per game.
My Best Bet for this Game
I expect the total to rocket up from the open, so if you can hop on it before it gets into the mid-230s, I’d definitely suggest betting the OVER. One thing to watch for, though, is Leonard’s status. He missed the games vs the Lakers and Jazz and is questionable for tonight.
If the total starts getting into the mid-230s or higher and Kawhi is not playing, I would shy away from the totals bet and start looking more closely at the spread. It opened at 8.5 but might start to come down as Sacramento has done a good job of covering this year as the underdog. I don’t even mind the Raptors at -8, but I think it may come down a little more and then I’ll take them at -6 or -7.
