After the biggest blockbuster trade in the NBA’s offseason that changed the narrative for the Toronto Raptors and San Antonio Spurs, we finally get to see Kawhi Leonard return to the place he spurned. The Spurs have been doing just fine without him lately as they’ve won nine of their last 10 games at home and went 11-5 SU in 16 games in December. That being said, Kawhi’s presence in red and black has pushed him into the MVP conversation and the Raptors are a half-game back from the best record in the NBA.
The Spurs opened as 2-point favorites with a total of 216.5.
- The Raptors are 1-5 SU in their last 6 road games.
- San Antonio led the NBA in three-point percentage in December (42 percent).
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Spurs’ last eight games at home (avg. combined score: 211.6).
I Was Wrong About the Spurs
San Antonio has plenty of time to fall back into mediocrity and prove me right but as of today, the Spurs are balling out. The Spurs are 21-17 SU in 38 games this season but that’s mainly because they got off to such a slow start and were looking like they would miss the playoffs for the first time since 1998. Well, December was their month to shine as they went 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in 16 games and part of that was how well they’ve been playing at home. San Antonio is 9-1 SU and ATS in its last 10 games at AT&T Center.
One of the main reasons for the resurgence is that the Spurs are scoring the ball at an incredible rate. In 16 games last month, they were third in the NBA in points per game and first in both field-goal percentage (51.2) and three-point percentage (42.4), which is Golden State-like. DeMar DeRozan seems to have fit well into San Antonio’s infrastructure but has played more of a playmaker role by averaging just over six assists to go with 21 points per game in December.
I think the Spurs get the win tonight and, to mitigate the risk of a close game, I would recommend taking them on the moneyline instead of the spread.
Raptors’ Recent Road Woes Are Hard to Overlook
Say that title three times quickly. Alliteration aside, there is validity to it because the Raps have been a tough sell in road games lately and that’s mainly because of the lack of continuity. When your two best players are not on the court regularly, it’s hard to maintain a rhythm, especially on the road. Kyle Lowry and Kawhi Leonard have each missed nine games this season and although the Raptors are 13-7 SU in 20 away games, they’re 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last six contests away from Toronto.
To be fair to the Dinos, they’ve gone 6-3 SU in the nine games Lowry has missed but those three losses were all on the road. In those losses, the Raptors were held to 98.3 points per game with two of those games coming against the Blazers and Magic, who aren’t exactly NBA powerhouses.
I’m not high on their chances to win this game because I think without Lowry and Jonas Valanciunas, the Raptors can get exposed when guys like Delon Wright and Greg Monroe are playing heavy minutes. When you factor in that Toronto is 0-4 ATS in the last four games in this matchup, it makes it easier to bet against the team with the best road record in the NBA.
AT&T Center is a Haven for UNDERs Lately
The total opened at 216.5 for this grudge match and the UNDER may be the profitable angle in this matchup. The UNDER has hit in six of the Spurs’ last eight games at home with an average combined score of 211.6 points per game. Factoring in that the UNDER has hit in three of the last four games in this matchup (average combined score: 193.2), I think it will be a low-scoring affair in San Antone.
My Pick Is...
To take the Spurs moneyline. I think this will be a close game but San Antonio will emerge victorious given how well they’ve played lately. The Raptors have struggled in spots without their starting point guard and the travel to Texas could put them in a tough spot to succeed.
