Nuggets, Jazz Have Gone OVER in 5 of 6 Games in Series

Thanks to the torrid shooting of Utah’s Donovan Mitchell and Denver’s Jamal Murray, OVER bettors have cashed tickets in five of the first six contests. Murray seeks his fourth straight 40-point outing as Denver looks to complete its rally from a 3-1 series deficit.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The lower-seeded Jazz opened as favorites for the fifth straight time in the series. However, bettors aren’t buying it after seeing the Nuggets cover each of the last three, betting Denver into a 1-point favorite within hours of the open. Meanwhile, the UNDER also saw strong early support, moving the total down to 218 at some shops.

Utah News & Notes

The Jazz looked like a frustrated bunch near the end of Game 6, with Rudy Gobert kicking a chair following a defensive breakdown and Donovan Mitchell pushing an exercise bike on his way off the court. But Utah’s players insist they aren’t panicking after seeing a 3-1 series lead — and a 15-point advantage in the third quarter of Game 5 — slip away.

“If we’re down now, then we’ve already lost Game 7. I don’t think anybody’s down,” Mitchell told the Salt Lake Tribune. “I think (angry) is the right word.”

To avoid becoming just the 12th team in NBA history to blow a 3-1 series lead, the Jazz need to provide Mitchell with more support at the offensive end. Mitchell’s 44 points Sunday gave him 232 in the series, already the second-most in a single series in playoff history, but his hot shooting has masked the struggles of his teammates.

Gobert has scored just 11 points in each of the last two games, Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson have also seen their scoring drop dramatically after lighting it up in Games 3-5, and Royce O’Neale and Joe Ingles attempted just four shots on Sunday. Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters he wants to see faster decisions and better ball movement in Tuesday’s deciding game.

Denver News & Notes

It’s not hyperbole to suggest that Murray is on a historic run. The fourth-year guard’s 142 points in the last three games ranks third all-time for the most ever in three consecutive playoff games, trailing only Jerry West and Michael Jordan. Murray’s also joined Allen Iverson as the only players in 20 years to record three 25-point halves in one playoff series.

Best yet for Denver, Murray has put up his big numbers with tremendous efficiency, hitting 17 of his 24 field-goal attempts (and nine of 12 from three-point territory) en route to his 50-point effort in Game 6.

Murray has had plenty of help in pulling Denver out of its 3-1 series hole, however. Nikola Jokic has hit 10 of his 16 three-point attempts over the past two games, while Jerami Grant scored 18 points on 6-of-9 shooting on Sunday.

Perhaps most significantly, Denver has drastically improved its defensive play, holding Utah to 107 points in consecutive games after allowing 124-plus in the previous three. That defense got better with Gary Harris’ return from injury in Game 6 – Utah averaged 27.1 fewer points per 100 possessions in Harris’ 20 minutes of action than when he was on the bench.

Betting Pick: Nuggets -1

In addition to having all the momentum, Denver’s got better offensive balance and can lean on the experience of playing in a pair of Game 7s last year. Harris should also be able to play more minutes in his second game back, helping the Nuggets bottle up Utah’s stagnant offense even more.