After a statement win at home vs the Raptors, the Boston Celtics will return to the court to host the Utah Jazz tonight. The Celtics dropped 123 points on the Raptors with 43 points from Kyrie Irving and are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in six home games this season. The Jazz also played last night in Philly and fell 113-107 and may have difficulty in knocking off a Celtics squad that is 16-2 SU in its last 18 home games and 7-3 SU in the second game of a back-to-back.
The Celtics opened as 4-point favorites with a total of 208.5.
- The Celtics are 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in last 18 games at home.
- The Jazz rank 28th in opponent field-goal percentage (47.9).
- The OVER has hit in 10 of the Jazz’s 15 games this season.
TD Garden has been a Graveyard for Opposing Teams
As evidenced during last year’s Celtics playoff run to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final, beating Boston in Bean Town is easier said than done. The Celtics were 10-1 SU in 11 home games during last year’s playoffs and that has carried over to this season as Boston is 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games at TD Garden.
The Celtics’ defense continues to be its calling card as they rank third in points allowed per game (102.9) with teams only averaging 31 percent from three-point range, which is the best in the NBA. The C’s forced the Raptors into shooting 8 for 29 from deep (27.6 percent) which is fairly impressive considering Toronto has six players that all shoot 33 percent or higher from downtown on its roster.
I like the Celtics to continue their winning ways and cover the spread because of its depth and the fact that they’re 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games in the second game of a back-to-back.
The Jazz' Offensive Woes Are a Red Flag
This was supposed to be the season where the Jazz roll through the Western Conference and challenge Golden State for the throne. Well, that standoff may not happen at this rate because of how poorly Utah has been defending. The Jazz rank 23rd in opponent three-point percentage (37 percent) and 28th in opponent field goal percentage (47 percent) which is not a recipe for success in the NBA. If teams can shoot that high of a percentage on them from deep, it all but negates the presence of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, who is averaging a career-low 2.1 blocks per game.
Donovan Mitchell is an awesome player and will likely be an all-star this season but he seems to have regressed after his breakout year. Mitchell is only shooting 40 percent from the field and an ugly 27 percent from three on just under seven attempts which may explain why the Jazz as a team rank 26th in three-point percentage.
I’m not enthused with the idea of backing the Jazz tonight as they’re 5-10-1 ATS in the last 16 games in this matchup and 3-6-1 ATS in the last 10 games on the second game of a back-to-back. If you’re backing the Jazz tonight, you must know something I don’t because on paper and with the eye test, Boston is the better team.
OVER Seems to Follow When Jazz Take the Court
The total opened at 208.5 and while the recent performance stats of these teams points to an UNDER, I’m leaning to the OVER. The Jazz are one of the best OVER teams in the NBA with 10 of their 15 games going over this season while the OVER has also hit in four of the Celtics’ last six games. The Celtics exploded for 123 points against one of the better defensive teams in the NBA and their depth should help push this total OVER the top.
My Pick Is…
To take the Celtics to cover the spread. I’ve seen enough of the Celtics this season to know they’re a different team when playing at TD Garden and in recent games, they’ve started to come together and figure out the proper roster rotations to let everyone eat. The Jazz are on the downswing and when both teams are on a back-to-back, I tend to lean to the home team.
