Two second-tier teams in the Western Conference will take the court tonight when the Utah Jazz face the Portland Trail Blazers. The “second-tier” tag isn’t meant to slight these franchises as both are in the playoff hunt in the West with the Blazers at 10-4 SU in 14 games in January while the Jazz are 11-3 SU. Realistically, though, both are playing for second place behind the Warriors. The Blazers are expected to have PG Damian Lillard back in the lineup and opened as slight 1-point favorites with the home-court advantage. The total opened at 218.
- The Jazz are first in the NBA in points allowed per game in January (103.9).
- The Blazers are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games at home.
- The UNDER has hit in the last 5 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 202.4).
The Jazz’ Defense Is Carrying Them To Victory
When the Jazz made their surprising run last year to the second round of the playoffs, it all started with the progression of Donovan Mitchell and defense. Well, this year it looks like Utah has regained that edge that made it such a tough matchup because the Jazz are one of five teams with 11 wins in January and lead the NBA in points allowed per game (103.9).
Mitchell has picked up his scoring to 28.1 points per game this month, which is the highest per month average in his young career. While it feels like any player can average 20 points these days with the way the three-pointer has taken over, Mitchell has done it with a nice blend of drives to the hoop and deep shots as he’s averaging just over 40 percent on seven attempts per game from beyond the arc this month. He and six other Jazz players are averaging double-digit points in January.
At 9-1 SU in their last 10 games and 11-3 SU in 14 games in January, it’s very hard to pick against the Jazz lately, especially in a pick’em scenario. However, that one loss over their last 10 games was to this same Blazers team by five points and it was in Salt Lake City. I’m tempted to take the Jazz but in a coin-flip scenario, you either look like a genius or an idiot.
Blazers are Red-Hot At Home Lately
Winning their last seven games at home and covering the spread in six of them, the Blazers are reminding everyone that they were the 3 seed in last year’s West playoffs and are crushing teams at the Moda Center. The Blazers won those games by an average of 14.8 points and in their last 28 games at home against teams with winning records, they’re 20-7-1 ATS which means their recent success isn’t just against cupcake teams.
Damian Lillard is expected back tonight after sitting out one game with a knee injury and while Portland can weather the storm with CJ McCollum (20.8 points per game) and Jusuf Nurkic, the reality is that the Blazers are much better with the first-team All-NBA’er in the lineup. Dame is putting up 26 points per game this season and when the Blazers beat the Jazz on their home floor last week, Lillard put up 26-8-8.
The more research I do on the Blazers, the more I like their chances to win this game. This month, they have a +7.6-point differential, are in the top 10 in both opponent field-goal and three-point percentage and have won eight of the last 11 games in this matchup when played in Portland. I know the Jazz have the personnel to beat almost any team in the league but I’ll take my chances with the Blazers at home as long as Lillard is fully healthy.
UNDER ALERT
The total opened at 218 and based on recent games in this matchup, UNDER bettors are licking their chops. The UNDER has hit in the last five games in this matchup with an average combined score of 202.4. Both of these teams rank in the top five in limiting opponents’ three-point attempts this month and the Jazz have the best scoring defense in the league in January. Factoring in that the UNDER has hit in 12 of the Blazers’ last 17 games with a closing total of 218 or more, I think this game falls below the total again.
My Pick Is…
To take the Blazers -1 and for them to beat the Jazz on their home floor. If these teams hadn’t played so recently, I’d be a little more enthused to take Utah but even during the Jazz’s recent win streak, they still couldn’t stop the Blazers on their home floor. I expect Nurkic to neutralize the threat of Rudy Gobert and for Lillard and McCollum to have big games while being defended by Ricky Rubio and Donovan Mitchell.
