Iowa State vs Arizona State Odds & Picks: Sun Devils Will Take Big 12 Championship

Picked to finish last in the Big 12 preseason poll, the Arizona State Sun Devils have instead produced a surprise dream season that has them one victory away from a berth in the College Football Playoff. The final step is Saturday’s Big 12 championship game in Arlington, Texas, where they’re a 2.5-point favorite over Iowa State.

Arizona State finished the regular season at 10-2 ATS, tied with Marshall for the best record in FBS football, according to data at TeamRankings.com. The Sun Devils head to metro Dallas having covered five straight, most recently hammering rival Arizona 49-7 as an 8-point road favorite. The Cyclones have covered just two of their past six games, but one of those was a 29- 21 victory last week over 2-point road underdog Kansas State.

Iowa State vs Arizona State - Big 12 Championship Game Odds

Big 12 Championship Game: Iowa State vs Arizona State, December 7, 12:00 pm ET

Odds as of December 2

Iowa State vs Arizona State Picks - Big 12 Championship Game

Left for dead after the scandal-ridden Herm Edwards era, Arizona State has been resuscitated in Year 2 under current coach Kenny Dillingham. The Sun Devils are powered by punishing running back Cam Skattebo, who averages 127 yards per game, and a defense that’s been good enough to keep Arizona State in every game. Skattebo has carried at least 21 times in each of his last four outings, so expect more of the same in Jerry World.

Defense is the calling card for Iowa State, which is in the Big 12 championship for just the second time ever. The Cyclones own the best scoring defense in the league, allowing opponents fewer than 20 points per game. Their Achilles’ heel, though, is against the run—Iowa State ranks 14th in the league in rush defense, having allowed 237 yards to Kansas, 287 to Cincinnati and 354 to UCF.

While Iowa State and Arizona State did not play during the regular season, they do have several common opponents—both beat UCF, Utah and Kansas State, both lost to Texas Tech, the Cyclones defeated Cincinnati and lost to Kansas, while the Sun Devils did the opposite. As the point spread would suggest, everything about this game feels close. But Iowa State’s inability to slow the better rushing teams on its schedule gives the edge to the boys from Tempe.

Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Pick: Arizona State -2.5

Arizona State has gone OVER in four of its past five games, while Iowa State has split its last six against the total. The Cyclones have scored 29 or more points in four consecutive games, while the Sun Devils have eclipsed 24 points in five straight. The total for the Big 12 title game is on the low side as far as both teams are concerned, which nudges us toward the OVER.

Iowa State vs Arizona State Big 12 Championship Game Pick: OVER 51

Iowa State vs Arizona State News

Iowa State’s defense received a boost last week when defensive tackle J.T. Singleton, out the past two games with an arm injury, returned against Kansas State. The Cyclones were also hoping to get back tight end Ben Brahmer, out since suffering a leg injury in mid-October, but he did not return to action against the Wildcats. Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson left the field against Arizona last week with an apparent shoulder injury, and his status for Saturday is not yet known.

Iowa State vs Arizona State Prop Bet: Arizona State -6.5 Alternate Spread, +160

When you’re dealing with the best team in the nation ATS, there's no reason to be meek about it. Arizona State has outperformed the spread by an average of 10 points per game and has covered by an average of 14.3 points over the course of the Sun Devils’ current five-game winning streak. Based on those trends, backing an alternate spread of just within a touchdown still makes sense.

Iowa State vs Arizona State Betting Trends