Oklahoma State vs TCU Picks & Odds: Horned Frogs Slim Favorites In Big 12 Matchup

Undefeated Big 12 Conference rivals clash Saturday as the TCU Horned Frogs (5-0 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) play host to the Oklahoma State Cowboys (5-0, 3-2) in Week 7 college football action.

The Horned Frogs vaulted four spots to No. 13 in the wake of last weekend’s 38-31 win in Kansas and join Oklahoma State as the only two remaining Big 12 teams with unblemished straight-up records. The Cowboys are coming off a 41-31 victory over the visiting Texas Tech Red Raiders. Despite enjoying an undefeated start, Oklahoma State has slipped one spot to No. 8 in the AP Top 25.

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Oklahoma State vs TCU Sportsbook Odds

The Horned Frogs have steadily gained momentum since Sportsbook as 1-point favorites, vaulting to 3.5-point home chalk. The total has remained largely unchanged since Sportsbook at 68.5, dipping slightly to 68.

The Cowboys romped to a 63-17 victory when they hosted TCU last season. However, neither team has maintained steady dominance in head-to-head action, with home teams earning the win in each of their past four clashes, both straight up and against the spread.

Last year’s lopsided victory by the Cowboys marked the first time since 2017 that a date involving these teams was settled by a margin greater than seven points. High-scoring games have been commonplace when these Big 12 rivals meet, with the total reaching 69 or higher in each of their past four, fueling a 3-1 run for the OVER in totals betting.

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Sanders Powering Potent Oklahoma State Attack

The Cowboys were forced to rally from an eight-point deficit in last weekend’s 41-31 win over the Red Raiders. For the second time in as many weeks, the Cowboys spotted opponents the Sportsbook score of the game, and the 24 points they allowed to Texas Tech in the first half marks the most points they have yielded before halftime so far this season.

Despite those early defensive concerns, the Oklahoma State offense managed to produce early on, scoring on four of the team’s first six drives. Cowboys pivot Spencer Sanders demonstrated his dual-threat skills, tossing for 297 yards and one score, while also contributing 56 rushing yards and a pair of scoring runs. Sanders has now connected for 12 scoring strikes on the season, and his six rushing touchdowns rank fourth in the nation among quarterbacks.

The challenge for the Cowboys remains shutting down opposing offenses. Oklahoma State has now surrendered 984 total yards over its past two games. However, after letting Baylor back into the game with three third-quarter scores in a 36-25 win in Week 5, the Cowboys effectively shut down the Red Raiders after recess last weekend, forcing turnovers on four of Texas Tech’s final six possessions.

TCU Scoring Early and Often

The Horned Frogs survived an epic seesaw battle that featured 56 total points scored after recess on their way to last week’s 38-31 win over the Jayhawks. With the exception of TCU’s impressive 99-yard drive to the end zone that took just 2:36, both teams struggled to generate offense early on, with four turnovers getting committed before the half.

TCU’s relatively slow start came in contrast to its three previous games, when the Horned Frogs offense averaged an impressive 35.7 points before recess. That production has lifted TCU to third overall in the nation, with 46.4 points scored per game.

Quarterback Max Duggan has been a model of consistency, throwing for 14 total touchdowns over the past four games, with eight of those tosses coming on home turf. Duggan has also enjoyed the benefit of an impressive Horned Frogs ground game that has tallied a sixth-ranked 17 total scoring runs, including six from junior running back Kendre Miller.

Oklahoma State: Keys To Victory

The Cowboys can give themselves a lift by regaining their strong early-game form but will face a challenge against a Horned Frogs defense that has allowed just 13 total first-quarter points through their first five contests. That likely means more dual-threat heroics from Spencer Sanders and another big outing from rusher Dominic Richardson, who has delivered timely scoring runs in three of the past four games.

TCU: Keys To Victory

Scoring early and scoring often has produced positive results for the Horned Frogs so far this season. TCU needs a more responsible performance from the defense, which allowed the Red Raiders to reach the end zone three times on possessions immediately following scores this past weekend.

College Football Computer Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5

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