Goals are all we care about for the 2024 Euro Golden Boot odds. We don't care how they score 'em, we only care how many they score and what player scores the most.
Dani Olmo is the heavy favorite at -275. With those heavy odds on the favorite, there's a lot of profit to be had on Harry Kane as a value bet.
2024 Euro Golden Boot Odds
| Player (Nation) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dani Olmo (Spain) | -275 |
| Harry Kane (England) | +275 |
| Jude Bellingham (England) | +2507 |
| Fabian Ruiz (Spain) | +3310 |
| Lamine Yamal (Spain) | +4038 |
Odds as of July 13
2024 Euro Golden Boot Favorite: Dani Olmo
Remember how assists matter in the tournament's top goal-scorer race? Olmo is the favorite because he co-leads the tournament for goals and has two helpers.
Olmo has scored three goals and gotten two assists while only starting twice for Spain. Only Fullkrug, Demiral and Schranz have a better goal per 90 rate than Olmo's 0.79.
That he's scored three goals on only 1.1xG is even more remarkable. He's not knocking in tap-ins or sitters. Olmo is scoring goals from what should be a low-danger opportunity.
🇪🇸 Scored. Assisted. Ran the attack.
— UEFA EURO 2024 (@EURO2024) July 5, 2024
What a performance from Dani Olmo 👏@Vivo_GLOBAL | #EUROPOTM pic.twitter.com/yFGSaweEPy
As it stands, he's already leading the race for the Golden Boot. But, Dani has at least one more game to pad those stats with Spain advancing to the Finals. Giving him another 90 minutes could very well see him add to his three goals and two assists.
And with that inspired play, you could make the case for Olmo to win the 2024 Euros Player of the Tournament too.
2024 Euro Golden Boot Value Bet
Maybe you don't want to take the chalk favorite for the 2024 Euro Golden Boot. Here's a value bet you might want to consider.
Harry Kane (England) +275
With that lucky penalty against the Dutch, Kane now has three goals in this tournament. If Kane scores one more, which he does a lot, he passes the Spanish favorite on the Golden Boot odds board.
Per the game props for the final between England and Spain, if anyone is going to score it's going to be Kane. He's got the best anytime goal odds at +275. That's $275 of profit on a $100 bet for Kane to win the Golden Boot.
You know Gareth Southgate's plan is to feed Kane the ball in dangerous areas. The Three Lions have done a good job in that department in the later stages of the tournament. In Kane's last four games, he's had 22 touches in the attacking penalty area 5.5 per match.
Last 10 Euro Golden Boot Winners
| Year | Player (Nation) | Goals |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) | 5 |
| 2016 | Antoine Greizman (France) | 6 |
| 2012 | Fernando Torres (Spain) | 3 |
| 2008 | David Villa (Spain) | 4 |
| 2004 | Milan Baros (Czechia) | 5 |
| 2000 | Patrick Kluivert (Netherlands) & Savo Milosevic (Yugoslavia) | 5 |
| 1996 | Alan Shearer (England) | 5 |
| 1992 | Dennis Bergkamp (Netherlands), Tomas Brolin (Sweden), Henrik Larsen, Karl-Heinz Riedle (Germany) | 3 |
| 1988 | Marco van Basten (Netherlands) | 5 |
| 1984 | Michel Platini (France) | 9 |
Five or six goals should win the Golden Boot on any given year, but score more and you're guaranteed to win it.
Since 2008, the future Golden Boot winner bagged 67% of his goals in the group stage. So when handicapping Golden Boot odds look for a prolific goal scorer in a bad group.
