Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl Odds and Pick: Florida Win And Cover

A regular season that began with their head coach on the hottest seat in the nation ended with three straight wins for the Florida Gators, who are finally showing some long-awaited signs of progress. Florida’s reward is a Gasparilla Bowl berth in nearby Tampa, where the Gators are a 12.5-point favorite over a Tulane team which flirted with the College Football Playoff before losing its last two.

While the Green Wave will have coach John Sumrall, who’s taken his name out of the running for bigger jobs, quarterback Darian Mensah is another story—he’s entered the transfer portal, so his status for the bowl game is unclear. The Gators had little movement into the transfer portal as of mid-December, with backup tight end Arlis Boardingham the largest potential loss to that point.

Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl Odds

Matchup Page: Tulane vs Florida, December 20, 3:30 pm ET

Odds as of December 10

Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl Picks

Florida’s turnaround has helped make the Gators one of the more reliable spread bets this season, with covers in eight of their last nine games. Florida was an underdog in six of those ATS victories, and against FBS opponents they haven’t been bigger than a 17-point favorite—which came in the regular-season finale against Florida State, where the Gators easily covered in a 31- 11 rout.

Tulane had covered in seven of eight before losing its last two games of the regular season, both as favorites on the road—34-24 to 13-point underdog Memphis, and 35-14 at 5-point underdog Army in the American Athletic Association championship game. The Green Wave has lost to both power-conference opponents it’s played this season, 34-27 to Kansas State (covering as a 9-point underdog) and 34-19 to Oklahoma (failing to cover as a 12.5-point underdog).

The difference in strength of schedule between the two teams is stark—Florida’s is fifth, according to the Sagarin ratings, while Tulane’s is 76th. The Gators with a healthy D.J. Lagway at quarterback beat Ole Miss, took Tennessee to overtime and pushed Georgia into the second half. The Green Wave without Mensah? Backup quarterback Ty Thompson has attempted just 11 passes all season.

Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl Pick: Florida -12.5

Tulane has gone OVER in five of its last eight games, but that’s with a veteran starting quarterback who has a great TD-to-INT ratio and a high completion percentage. It’s going to be a different ballgame if Mensah doesn’t play. Florida meanwhile has gone UNDER in three straight behind an offense that grinds out yards and eats up the clock, exactly what we expect to see in the Gasparilla Bowl.

Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl Pick: UNDER 50.5

Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl News

While Sumrall was initially a candidate for the North Carolina job, he took himself out of the running and signed a contract extension with Tulane, meaning he’ll be on the sideline for the bowl game. Florida received a boost when defensive tackle Cam Jackson announced he will play in the bowl game, continuing a campaign that’s seen him record 37 tackles, four for loss, along with 1.5 sacks.

Tulane vs Florida Gasparilla Bowl Prop Bet: Johnson Jr. Anytime TD

A staple of Florida’s run game, Johnson finished the regular season in a big way—18 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss, 10 carries for 99 yards and a score against Florida State. Johnson has gotten double-digit carries seven times this year and leads all Gators running backs with six touchdowns, so expect another hefty workload in Tampa.

Tulane vs Florida Betting Trends