Bills vs Patriots Picks & Odds: AFC East Rivals Meet After Thanksgiving Games

The Buffalo Bills (8-3 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) will play their third consecutive game away from home when they visit the New England Patriots (6-5, 6-4-1) for the Week 13 Thursday Night Football game as solid road favorites at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

The Bills played their last two games at Detroit and won both – including a 28-25 victory against the Lions on Thanksgiving Day as 9.5-point favorites – while the Patriots are coming off a 33-26 road loss to the Minnesota Vikings as 2.5-point underdogs that night.

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Bills vs Patriots Sportsbook Odds

Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last five games, losing two of those SU as well. This is a massive divisional matchup for the Bills, who will have an excellent opportunity to move into sole possession of first place in the AFC East with a win considering the Miami Dolphins are visiting the NFC West-leading San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

This is also a big game for a New England team trying to return to the postseason for the second time in as many years sans future Hall of Famer Tom Brady. While the point spread has not moved yet, the total has dropped two points from 45.5 to 43.5 in early wagering.

Get the best Bills vs Patriots odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.

Buffalo Begins Divisional Stretch That Could Decide AFC East Sportsbook

The Bills will play the Patriots, New York Jets and Dolphins in the next three games, and sweeping that trio of opponents should put them in prime position to capture the division title for the third year in a row. The key for them in this spot is to keep their foot on the pedal and not allow the opposition to hang around.

Buffalo’s defense will be without pass rusher Von Miller for the foreseeable future as he recovers from a knee injury suffered last Thursday, so the rest of the players on the unit will need to step up and try to hold New England to 20 points or less. Only one of the team’s last six foes has been held to less than 20, so that is definitely a goal for the defense heading into this one.

New England’s Defense Turns in Stinker at Minnesota on Thanksgiving

The Patriots played arguably their worst game of the season vs the Vikings last week, allowing opposing quarterback Kirk Cousins to throw a season-high three touchdown passes while the special teams unit also gave up a 97-yard kickoff return for a score.

New England fans know it will be a very tough week of practice for their team following that defeat, with head coach Bill Belichick likely being extra hard on the players who performed poorly. The good news for the Patriots is that Belichick is an all-time great and rarely sees his team play badly two straight weeks. Another positive is that New England quarterback Mac Jones threw for a season-high 382 yards and two touchdowns in the defeat.

Bills: Keys To Victory

Buffalo’s offense has been fine lately even though quarterback Josh Allen has been a little shaky at times throwing the ball since his elbow injury. As mentioned earlier, the defense is the biggest key to victory, as the Bills simply cannot afford to let the Patriots score more than 20 points. If Buffalo can hold New England in check, the team can cover.

Patriots: Keys To Victory

The offense was a bright spot for New England last week, with Jones doing everything he could to get his team a win. That was promising for the Patriots, who will probably need to score 23 or more to get the job done. In six of their last eight wins in this series, they have scored at least 23 points. The team has scored 22 or more in four of its last five wins overall this year too, so totaling at least three touchdowns may help pull off the upset.

NFL Computer Pick: Patriots +5

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