Underdogs have been one of the NFL's most profitable betting trends over the last few seasons. But, as shown by our NFL underdog betting report, wagering on dogs has been pretty tough this season.
NFL dogs have been pretty weak against the spread and on the moneyline in 2024, but there all still some underdog teams and situations to watch for. Check out my complete breakdown of NFL underdog betting trends below:
Straight Up 2024 NFL Underdog Betting Records
| SU Record | SU Win | SU Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 66-157 | 29.6% | -$4044.52 |
Against The Spread NFL Underdog Trends
| ATS Record | ATS Win | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 103-113-7 | 47.7% | -$1832.04 |
We saw some massive upsets early this season that made underdogs particularly profitable, including the Patriots besting the Bengals as 8.5-point underdogs in Week 1 and the Vikings toppling the 49ers as 5.5-point dogs in Week 2.
But, those big upsets have gone away in recent weeks and the underdogs have suffered both straight up and against the spread.
Best 2024 Underdog NFL Teams To Bet On
| Team | SU Underdog Record | SU Underdog Profits | ATS Underdog Record | ATS Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh | 5-1 | +$605.0 | 5-1 | +$372.73 |
| Minnesota | 3-0 | +$400.0 | 3-0 | +$281.39 |
| Philadelphia | 3-0 | +$395.0 | 3-0 | +$286.15 |
| Arizona | 4-4 | +$285.0 | 6-2 | +$354.12 |
| LA Rams | 4-4 | +$245.0 | 4-4 | -$31.22 |
| Seattle | 5-5 | +$200.0 | 5-5 | -$40.31 |
| Washington | 2-3 | +$145.0 | 2-2-1 | -$26.08 |
| Dallas | 4-7 | +$110.0 | 4-7 | -$322.94 |
| Detroit | 1-0 | +$105.0 | 1-0 | +$90.91 |
| Buffalo | 2-2 | +$45.0 | 2-2 | -$13.85 |
| Denver | 2-5 | +$40.0 | 4-3 | +$67.97 |
| Tampa Bay | 3-5 | +$30.24 | 5-3 | +$150.6 |
| Kansas City | 1-1 | +$30.0 | 1-1 | -$9.09 |
| Green Bay | 2-3 | -$45.0 | 3-2 | +$61.2 |
| Baltimore | 0-1 | -$100.0 | 0-1 | -$100.0 |
| Cleveland | 3-7 | -$100.0 | 4-6 | -$227.7 |
| New Orleans | 3-7 | -$194.76 | 5-5 | -$41.12 |
| Atlanta | 1-4 | -$200.0 | 1-4 | -$309.09 |
| San Francisco | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 0-2 | -$200.0 |
| Carolina | 3-10 | -$270.0 | 6-7 | -$141.55 |
| Indianapolis | 3-7 | -$290.0 | 6-4 | +$158.45 |
| New England | 3-11 | -$290.0 | 5-8-1 | -$353.03 |
| Houston | 0-3 | -$300.0 | 2-1 | +$86.15 |
| Tennessee | 2-8 | -$335.0 | 2-8 | -$609.09 |
| Miami | 1-5 | -$385.0 | 2-4 | -$222.13 |
| NY Jets | 0-4 | -$400.0 | 1-3 | -$209.09 |
| Cincinnati | 0-4 | -$400.0 | 2-2 | -$18.18 |
| LA Chargers | 0-4 | -$400.0 | 1-2-1 | -$109.09 |
| NY Giants | 2-11 | -$590.0 | 4-9 | -$536.36 |
| Las Vegas | 2-11 | -$630.0 | 5-7-1 | -$232.46 |
| Jacksonville | 1-9 | -$755.0 | 6-3-1 | +$241.89 |
| Chicago | 1-9 | -$795.0 | 3-5-2 | -$231.22 |
The best underdog team this season has been the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have won all five games bookmakers have doubted them in.
The Steelers haven't been massive underdogs at any point though, with their biggest upset coming as four-point dogs in Week 1 to the Falcons. But, there may be an opportunity for us to cash in on a few more Steelers underdog victories, with games against the Ravens, Eagles, and Chiefs still on the schedule.
Key Strategy: Betting On Road Underdogs
Everyone’s always looking for the edge in football betting. One of those edges in recent years has been betting on road underdogs against the spread.
After a brutal season for the road dogs last year, they are back close to .500 this season, but still not profitable:
| Year | ATS Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 85-73-3 | +$395.57 |
| 2022 | 89-77-3 | +$453.21 |
| 2023 | 76-84-4 | -$1480.03 |
| 2024 | 68-65-2 | -$263.19 |
| TOTAL | 318-299-12 | -$894.44 |
Traditionally, NFL home teams are given a 3-point advantage on the spread. For example, if a team was a 2-point favorite at a neutral site, they’d be a 5-point fave at home. Now, most books have whittled that advantage down to 2.5 points. However, there is still a ton of value to be had when betting on road underdogs.
Remember, the public loves to bet the favorite. Thus, sportsbooks handicap their NFL matchups appropriately. However, the price variance hasn't affected road underdogs so far this season. Home-field advantage is becoming less and less of a factor in NFL games.
If you want to be more selective, here are a few teams that stand out as successful road dogs ATS so far this year:
The Best Road Underdogs Teams
| Team | SU Underdog Record | SU Underdog Profits | ATS Underdog Record | ATS Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas | 4-2 | +$610.0 | 4-2 | +$177.06 |
| Seattle | 4-1 | +$500.0 | 4-1 | +$268.78 |
| Philadelphia | 3-0 | +$395.0 | 3-0 | +$286.15 |
| Pittsburgh | 3-1 | +$320.0 | 3-1 | +$172.73 |
| Denver | 2-3 | +$240.0 | 4-1 | +$267.97 |
| Tampa Bay | 2-2 | +$235.0 | 3-1 | +$168.78 |
| NY Giants | 2-3 | +$210.0 | 2-3 | -$118.18 |
| Arizona | 2-3 | +$175.0 | 4-1 | +$272.3 |
| Washington | 2-3 | +$145.0 | 2-2-1 | -$26.08 |
| Minnesota | 1-0 | +$120.0 | 1-0 | +$95.24 |
| Detroit | 1-0 | +$105.0 | 1-0 | +$90.91 |
| Buffalo | 2-2 | +$45.0 | 2-2 | -$13.85 |
| Kansas City | 1-1 | +$30.0 | 1-1 | -$9.09 |
| Atlanta | 1-2 | +$0.0 | 1-2 | -$109.09 |
| Tennessee | 2-5 | -$35.0 | 2-5 | -$309.09 |
| New England | 2-6 | -$50.0 | 3-5 | -$234.85 |
| Green Bay | 1-2 | -$60.0 | 2-1 | +$70.29 |
| LA Rams | 1-2 | -$60.0 | 1-2 | -$113.04 |
| New Orleans | 1-3 | -$60.0 | 2-2 | -$13.85 |
| Baltimore | 0-1 | -$100.0 | 0-1 | -$100.0 |
| Indianapolis | 2-4 | -$105.0 | 4-2 | +$172.3 |
| San Francisco | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 0-2 | -$200.0 |
| LA Chargers | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 1-1 | -$9.09 |
| Houston | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 1-1 | -$4.76 |
| Cleveland | 1-4 | -$255.0 | 2-3 | -$113.85 |
| Carolina | 1-5 | -$290.0 | 2-4 | -$213.85 |
| NY Jets | 0-3 | -$300.0 | 1-2 | -$109.09 |
| Cincinnati | 0-3 | -$300.0 | 2-1 | +$81.82 |
| Las Vegas | 1-7 | -$350.0 | 3-5 | -$218.61 |
| Jacksonville | 1-5 | -$355.0 | 4-2 | +$164.02 |
| Miami | 1-5 | -$385.0 | 2-4 | -$222.13 |
| Chicago | 0-7 | -$700.0 | 1-5-1 | -$413.04 |
