This NFL underdog betting report shows that betting on the dogs has been pretty tough this season, despite being one of the best bets in recent years.
NFL dogs have been pretty weak against the spread and on the moneyline this year, but there all still some underdog teams and situations to watch for. Check out my complete breakdown of NFL underdog betting trends below:
Straight Up 2024 NFL Underdog Betting Records
| SU Record | SU Win | SU Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 48-104 | 31.6% | -$1819.76 |
Against The Spread NFL Underdog Trends
| ATS Record | ATS Win | ATS Profit |
|---|---|---|
| 72-76-4 | 48.6% | -$970.7 |
We saw some massive upsets early this season that made underdogs particularly profitable, including the Patriots besting the Bengals as 8.5-point underdogs in Week 1 and the Vikings bested the 49ers as 5.5-point dogs in Week 2.
But, those big upsets have gone away in recent weeks and the underdogs have suffered both straight up and against the spread.
Best 2024 Underdog NFL Teams To Bet On
| Team | SU Underdog Record | SU Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | 3-0 | +$400.0 |
| Pittsburgh | 3-0 | +$400.0 |
| Arizona | 4-3 | +$385.0 |
| Philadelphia | 2-0 | +$250.0 |
| Washington | 2-3 | +$145.0 |
| Kansas City | 1-0 | +$130.0 |
| New England | 3-7 | +$110.0 |
| Detroit | 1-0 | +$105.0 |
| Atlanta | 1-1 | +$100.0 |
| Green Bay | 2-2 | +$55.0 |
| LA Rams | 2-3 | +$50.0 |
| Denver | 2-5 | +$40.0 |
| Carolina | 3-7 | +$30.0 |
| Cleveland | 2-4 | +$25.0 |
| Buffalo | 1-2 | -$75.0 |
| New Orleans | 2-5 | -$90.0 |
| Baltimore | 0-1 | -$100.0 |
| Tampa Bay | 2-5 | -$104.76 |
| Las Vegas | 2-6 | -$130.0 |
| Miami | 1-3 | -$185.0 |
| NY Giants | 2-7 | -$190.0 |
| LA Chargers | 0-2 | -$200.0 |
| Indianapolis | 2-5 | -$270.0 |
| Seattle | 1-4 | -$270.0 |
| Dallas | 2-5 | -$270.0 |
| Chicago | 1-4 | -$295.0 |
| Cincinnati | 0-3 | -$300.0 |
| NY Jets | 0-3 | -$300.0 |
| Houston | 0-3 | -$300.0 |
| Tennessee | 1-5 | -$365.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0-6 | -$600.0 |
The best underdog team this season has been the Minnesota Vikings, who shocked the football world early with some great results. The Vikings rattled off upset wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in early weeks, but since then the books have adjusted. Minnesota has been favored in six-straight games since those early upsets. So, there won't be many opportunities to bank on this scrappy team going forward.
Key Strategy: Betting On Road Underdogs
Everyone’s always looking for the edge in football betting. One of those edges in recent years has been betting on road underdogs against the spread. For the fourth time in the last five years, this market is one of the best for bettors.
After a brutal season for the road dogs last year, they are back in the win (or cover) column in 2024-25:
| Year | ATS Record | Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 85-73-3 | +$395.57 |
| 2022 | 89-77-3 | +$453.21 |
| 2023 | 76-84-4 | -$1480.03 |
| 2024 | 48-44-2 | +$11.58 |
| TOTAL | 298-278-12 | -$619.67 |
Traditionally, NFL home teams are given a 3-point advantage on the spread. For example, if a team was a 2-point favorite at a neutral site, they’d be a 5-point fave at home. Now, most books have whittled that advantage down to 2.5 points. However, there is still a ton of value to be had when betting on road underdogs.
Remember, the public loves to bet the favorite. Thus, sportsbooks handicap their NFL matchups appropriately. However, the price variance hasn't affected road underdogs so far this season. Home-field advantage is becoming less and less of a factor in NFL games.
If you want to be more selective, here are a few teams that stand out as successful road dogs ATS so far this year:
The Best Road Underdogs Teams
| Team | SU Underdog Record | SU Underdog Profits | ATS Underdog Record | ATS Underdog Profits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY Giants | 2-2 | +$310.0 | 2-2 | -$18.18 |
| Arizona | 2-2 | +$275.0 | 3-1 | +$181.39 |
| Pittsburgh | 2-0 | +$275.0 | 2-0 | +$181.82 |
| Philadelphia | 2-0 | +$250.0 | 2-0 | +$195.24 |
| Denver | 2-3 | +$240.0 | 4-1 | +$267.97 |
| Atlanta | 1-0 | +$200.0 | 1-0 | +$90.91 |
| New England | 2-4 | +$150.0 | 3-3 | -$34.85 |
| Washington | 2-3 | +$145.0 | 2-2-1 | -$26.08 |
| Kansas City | 1-0 | +$130.0 | 1-0 | +$90.91 |
| Minnesota | 1-0 | +$120.0 | 1-0 | +$95.24 |
| Detroit | 1-0 | +$105.0 | 1-0 | +$90.91 |
| Tampa Bay | 1-2 | +$100.0 | 2-1 | +$77.87 |
| Green Bay | 1-1 | +$40.0 | 1-1 | -$13.04 |
| Seattle | 1-1 | +$30.0 | 1-1 | -$13.04 |
| Dallas | 2-2 | +$30.0 | 2-2 | -$13.85 |
| Las Vegas | 1-4 | -$50.0 | 2-3 | -$109.52 |
| Cleveland | 1-2 | -$55.0 | 2-1 | +$86.15 |
| New Orleans | 1-3 | -$60.0 | 2-2 | -$13.85 |
| Buffalo | 1-2 | -$75.0 | 1-2 | -$104.76 |
| LA Chargers | 0-1 | -$100.0 | 0-1 | -$100.0 |
| Baltimore | 0-1 | -$100.0 | 0-1 | -$100.0 |
| Indianapolis | 1-3 | -$185.0 | 3-1 | +$177.06 |
| Miami | 1-3 | -$185.0 | 2-2 | -$22.13 |
| Carolina | 1-4 | -$190.0 | 1-4 | -$304.76 |
| Cincinnati | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 2-0 | +$181.82 |
| LA Rams | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 0-2 | -$200.0 |
| NY Jets | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 0-2 | -$200.0 |
| Houston | 0-2 | -$200.0 | 1-1 | -$4.76 |
| Tennessee | 1-4 | -$265.0 | 1-4 | -$300.0 |
| Jacksonville | 0-4 | -$400.0 | 3-1 | +$173.11 |
| Chicago | 0-4 | -$400.0 | 0-3-1 | -$300.0 |
