The first Sunday nighter of the NFL season received an extra shot of flavor with three-time Pro Bowler Khalil Mack getting traded to the Bears on September 1. Even the addition of a recent defensive player of the year might not be enough for the Bears to erase almost a decade of incompetence vs the Packers, or as far as us bettors are concerned, cover a +7.5-point spread. Despite only being on the Bears for a week, Mack is expected to be active. The trade had no immediate impact on the spread or 47.5-point total.
- Green Bay is 13-5-1 ATS in its last 19 September home games.
- Mitchell Trubisky had a 68.9 QB rating on the road in 2017.
- The Bears went 0-3 SU in divisional road games last season, losing by an average of 14.6 points.
I like Green Bay to cover, and not just because history says so
Bettors should never simply cling to betting trends when making picks, but the avalanche of numbers supporting Aaron Rodgers and company in this one are unavoidable. Green Bay is on a tear that’s seen the team go 15-5 ATS in its last 20 games vs Chicago. That stretch includes a 7-3 ATS home record and eight victories by double digits. The Pack are also a great early-season bet when playing at home, posting a 16-3 SU and 13-5-1 ATS mark in September since 2007. I could pile on even more, but I’ll conclude by telling you that Aaron Rodgers has thrown more TD passes vs the Bears (42) than any other team.
So that’s what has happened, but what about what will happen on Sunday night? The Bears are putting together the building blocks of a future contender, but we shouldn’t expect them to come flying out of the gate, especially at Lambeau Field. There’s a lot of new pieces in the mix for Chicago, including new head coach Matt Nagy, who will be calling plays for second-year QB Mitchell Trubisky, and I anticipate that they’ll require some time to jell.
Speaking of Trubisky, he struggled on the road in his rookie season, posting a 68.9 QB rating with just three touchdown passes to six interceptions. The Green Bay defense was also significantly better at home in 2017, allowing just 20.2 points on average compared to 27.8 on the road. Combining these two factors with Aaron Rodgers, who should come flying out of the gate, makes Packers -7.5 my pick.
High-Scoring Games are the norm between Bears, Packers
with an improved chicago defense that allowed just 20 points per game in 2017 and an offense that might need time to jell, I’m leaning toward the UNDER.
Initially, the 47.5-point total looked a tad high to me, but it’s a number the teams have topped on the regular as they’ve gone OVER in seven of their last nine matchups, with those games having an average combined score of exactly 50 points. Still, with an improved Chicago defense that allowed just 20 points per game last season combined with that offense that might need time to find its footing, I’m leaning toward the UNDER.
Bears have been awful vs divisional opponents
Like I mentioned above, you should never rely solely on trends, especially when entering a new season with a team that has a new head coach, but Chicago’s inefficiencies vs divisional opponents must be noted. The Bears are currently on a streak that’s seen them lose nine straight vs other NFC North teams, and they’re getting obliterated, losing those nine games by an average of 10.11 points. Their play in divisional road games last season should definitely be on bettors’ radars, as they went 0-3 SU with an average losing margin of 14.6 points! Incremental improvements should be expected with this team, but you shouldn’t anticipate them completely flipping the script in Week 1.
