Broncos Heavy Favorites Over Lions In Week 14

The Detroit Lions (1-10-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) finally won their first game of the season last week, but they’ve been cashing tickets for bettors for a while. The Lions seek their fifth straight cover when they visit the Denver Broncos (6-6, 6-6), who have been held to 17 points or less in three of their last five games.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

This could be just the third time since 2017 that the Broncos are favored by more than a touchdown, although early action on Detroit had moved the line down to 7.5 at some betting sites by Monday night. 

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Detroit News & Notes

For the first time in nearly a calendar year, the Lions are coming off a victory. That, combined with the fact that they snapped their 15-game winless skid with a last-second touchdown, could mean they don’t have much left in the emotional tank for this trip to Denver.

“We’ve gone through a lot this season,” coach Dan Campbell told the Associated Press after Sunday’s 29-27 win over Minnesota. “It makes it feel so much better to finally get over that hump.”

The 29 points against the Vikings was the most Detroit has scored since a season-Sportsbook 41-33 loss to San Francisco. Jared Goff threw for more yards last week (296) than he did in the Lions’ previous two games combined (285), although 75 of those yards came on Detroit’s final drive with Minnesota in a prevent defense.

The Lions had to turn to the air a bit more against the Vikings because they weren’t able to get much going on the ground, averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt without injured running back D’Andre Swift. Swift’s status for this week was uncertain at the time of writing.

Denver News & Notes

If there’s a stat that sums up the state of Denver’s methodical offense, it’s that the Broncos are the first team in 12 years to have a 20-play, 11-minute drive end in zero points. Denver accomplished that feat in last week’s 22-9 loss at Kansas City, turning the ball over on downs inside the KC 10-yard line after driving nearly the entire field.

That mistake, a Teddy Bridgewater pick-six and a special teams fumble deep in their own territory wasted a phenomenal effort from the Denver defense. The Broncos held Patrick Mahomes without a touchdown pass, intercepted him once and allowed just 184 yards through the air en route to going UNDER the total for the sixth straight game.

If there was a positive on offense for Denver, it was the play of rookie running back Javonte Williams. Williams ran for 102 yards and added 76 receiving yards, becoming the first rookie in franchise history to eclipse 100 rushing and 75 receiving yards in the same game. That strong performance may be enough to earn him the starting role in Denver even after Melvin Gordon returns from hip and shoulder injuries.

How Detroit Will Cover

For a team that has just one win in the past 12 months, the Lions have a pretty good defense. Detroit has held three of its last four opponents to 16 points or less and could do the same against Denver’s punchless attack.

How Denver Will Cover

The Broncos tend to beat up on weaker teams, winning 19 of their last 23 games against opponents with losing SU records. Mile High is a tough place to play at the best of times, and the Lions may be vulnerable coming off an emotional victory.

Computer Pick: Broncos -8

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