On the heels of a fairly electric Wild Card Weekend, the NFL returns Saturday and Sunday with its version of the Elite Eight, otherwise known as the divisional round.
Of course, when you have teams of this caliber lining up against each other, you’ll find plenty of data to back either side on the spread or total, but below you’ll find some trends and edges in certain areas of the game that might be helpful to your handicapping.
This season’s divisional round is different, as just one team in each conference received a first-round bye. Either way, No. 1 seeds have been a poor bet in this round going back to 2007, going just 9-17-2 ATS. This is likely the result of a bad combination of needing to cover a big spread while being rusty after a few weeks off.
From an outright betting perspective, home-field advantage has mattered with the home team going 28-8 SU (77.7%) since 2012. Keep in mind, however, that those games featured jam-packed stadiums full of fans supporting the home team, which won’t be the case this season.
One other thing you can take advantage of this weekend – or any weekend, for that matter, or any weekday too, I suppose – is to show a little bit more patience when making your own french fries at home.
All too often, people remove the fries from the oven too early, resulting in an inferior product. No matter how hungry you might be, I strongly recommend waiting until the fries reach an optimal level of crispiness. It truly is a mind-over-matter situation and if conquered correctly, you’ll greatly improve your dining experience.
Good luck with that... And also with your bets... Also, be sure to shake the ketchup bottle because it’s awful when you forget and a bunch of ketchup water runs out.
Divisional Round Stats and Trends:
- No. 1 seeds are just 9-17-2 ATS (34.6%) in the NFL's divisional round since 2007.
- The Packers are just 4-8-1 ATS in their last 13 home games in January as a favorite.
- Green Bay scored a TD on 80% of red-zone trips. That is the best mark in the NFL.
- Green Bay has a league-best average scoring margin of +12.1 at home.
- The Packers are 13-3 on 6-point teasers this season.
- The Packers have a league-best 8.5 first-half point differential. The Rams are at 0.18.
- Packers' home games have had an average combined score of 51.13.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams' last five games. (Avg combined score: 34.8)
- The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a road underdog.
- The Packers are 6-0 SU in their last six games. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
- The Packers are 8-0 SU in their last eight games as a favorite.
- The Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the playoffs.
- The Rams are 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs the Packers.
- The favored team is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 games in this matchup.
- The Bills rank 25th in yards allowed per rush attempt. The Ravens are first in yards per rush attempt.
- Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 10-3 ATS in road playoff games. They’ve covered in five straight as a road underdog in the playoffs.
- Bills' home games have an average combined score of 55 this season.
- The Ravens are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games.
- The Ravens are 6-0 SU in their last six games. (Avg winning margin: 17.33)
- The Ravens are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Ravens' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 45.0)
- The Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in the playoffs.
- The total has gone OVER in three of the Bills' last four games. (Avg combined score: 61.75)
- The Bills are 7-0 SU in their last seven games. (Avg winning margin: 17.43)
- The Bills are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Bills are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite.
- No. 1 seeds are just 9-17-2 ATS (34.6%) in the NFL's divisional round since 2007.
- Kansas City ranks third in third-down conversion percentage. The Browns are 23rd in third-down defense, which is the worst among remaining playoff teams.
- The Chiefs rank last in opponent red-zone TD scoring %. The Browns are fourth in this category offensively.
- Kansas City ranks sixth in opponent completion %. Baker Mayfield ranked 30th in completion % during the regular season.
- With Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, the Chiefs have averaged 35.8 points per game in the playoffs, scoring at least 31 points in all five games.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Browns' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 59.0)
- Browns road games have had an average combined score of 58.33 this season.
- The Browns are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
- The Browns are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a double-digit underdog.
- The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
- The Chiefs are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games in the playoffs.
- The Browns are 0-3 SU in their last three games vs the Chiefs. (Avg losing margin: 8.67)
- These teams ranks 24th and 29th in opponent red-zone TD scoring %.
- Tampa Bay ranks 27th in opponent completion %. Drew Brees ranked second in completion % in the regular season.
- The Saints rank second in opponent completion %. Tom Brady ranked 19th in completion % during the regular season, behind the likes of Cam Newton and Gardner Minshew.
- These teams rank first and third in yards per rush attempt allowed.
- In two losses vs the Saints this season, Tom Brady threw five interceptions and was sacked six times.
- Tampa Bay has an average scoring margin of +12 on the road. That is the best in the NFL. They also led the NFL in points per game on the road at 32.8.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Buccaneers' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 58.0)
- The Buccaneers are 6-0 SU in their last six games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 17.0)
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Saints' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 44.6)
- The Saints are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
- The Saints are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 15.5)
- The Saints are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games in the playoffs at home.
- The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in the playoffs as a favorite.
- The total has gone OVER in three of the Buccaneers' last four games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 51.0)
- The Buccaneers are 0-5 SU in their last five games vs the Saints. (Avg losing margin: 16.8)
- The Buccaneers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs the Saints.
