The Patriots never lose at home in October and the 49ers never lose as a big favorite.
Those are two of the biggest Week 5 NFL betting trends on the board. And while neither is perfect against the spread, both indicate that betting on outright upsets by the Bills or Broncos are unlikely.
New England has lost just once at home in October in the past decade. They are 18-1 SU overall. They opened as 7.5-point chalk to Denver.
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San Francisco has won 28 straight as a favorite of 8.5 or more points and they lay 11.5 points at home to Buffalo, a team crushed by the aforementioned Pats in Week 4. [ Consensus betting data, which teams are getting the most action from bettors? ] They haven't lost in this role since a 30-24 loss to visiting Carolina back in 1996.
Week 5 also sees bye week handicapping angles. Both the Steelers and Colts come off byes and should be prepared and rested, although neither has any meaningful trends to report. Next week, the Bears, Saints, Panthers and Jaguars hit their bye weeks (mercifully for New Orleans), so handicapping pre-bye-week games is important.
Do any teams historically treat this week as a must-win? The Saints must surely be considered at 0-4, but the host a tough Chargers team.
Elsewhere, Arizona has won seven straight at St. Louis, as those NFC West rivals open action Thursday night. And in the Battle of Pennsylvania, the Steelers host the Eagles as small home favorites. But the interesting betting trend here is the OVER (Pitt has played 10 straight OVERs when they are favored by 4 or less points).
Week 5 NFL odds:
Arizona PK at St. Louis PK, Total 38.5
10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS past 11 games vs Rams
Cards won seven in a row at St. Louis
Cardinals 11-2 SU past 13 games overall
Cardinals 5-1 ATS past 6 division games
Rams lost 16 of 20 SU within NFC West
Philadelphia +3 at Pittsburgh -3, Total 44
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home
Eagles 1-3 ATS at Pitt since 1988
Eagles 4-1 ATS past 5 games as road dog
Steelers played 10 straight OVERs when favored by 4 or less
Miami +4.5 at Cincinnati -4.5, Total 45
Dolphins 8-2 SU & ATS vs Bengals since 1983
Dolphins 2-6 SU, 6-2 ATS past 8 as underdog
Miami is 6-1 SU last 7 games at Cincinnati
Total OVER in 7 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
Atlanta -3 at Washington +3, Total 50
Redskins lost 5 straight SU as home underdog
Falcons just 3-7-1 ATS past 11 vs NFC East teams
Green Bay -7.5 at Indianapolis +7.5, Total 48.5
Colts won and covered past 3 as home dog
Green Bay is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
Colts OVER is 8-2 past 10 games after bye week
Total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games
Packers 1-4 ATS past 5 games as favorite
Baltimore -4.5 at Kansas City +4.5, Total 46.5
UNDER is 5-0-1 when these teams meet in KC since 1980
Chiefs 1-6 SU past 7 home games
UNDER is 12-4 past 16 KC home games
Cleveland +11 at NY Giants -11, Total 44
Browns lost 9 straight road games, but 5-0-1 ATS in past 6
Browns 6-1-1 ATS, 0-8 SU past 8 as underdog
Giants 2-6-1 ATS past 9 games as favorite
Total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games
Total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games
Seattle +3 at Carolina -3, Total 44
Home team won all 5 meetings since 2000
Panthers 1-6 ATS past 7 games before bye week
Seahawks 11-2-1 ATS past 14 games as underdog
Total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 6 games
Total has gone OVER in 8 of Carolina's last 11 games
Chicago at Jacksonville – OFF
Home team has covered all 5 meetings since 1995
Bears 3-7 ATS past 10 games before bye week
Buffalo +11 at San Francisco -11, Total 44.5
Bills 2-6-1 ATS past 9 road games
OVER is 12-2 past 14 games when Bills are dogs
Bills 7-2 ATS past 9 as dog of 8+ points
49ers won 20 straight as fave of 8+ points to 1997
Denver +7.5 at New England -7.5, Total 51.5
Broncos 1-7 ATS past 8 games in October
Patriots 18-1 SU at home in October since 2002
Denver is 17-6 SU past 23 games vs Patriots
Pats 8-1 ATS past 9 vs AFC West teams
New England is 17-4 SU past 21 games at home
Tennessee +7 at Minnesota -7, Total 43.5
Titans 1-5 SU at Minnesota since 1980
Vikings 1-7 ATS past 8 games as favorite
San Diego +3.5 at New Orleans -3.5, Total 54
Saints 7-1-1 ATS past 9 games before bye week
OVER is 6-1 past 7 SD vs Saints games since 1988
Total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans's last 9 games
Chargers 6-2 ATS past 8 as road dog
Houston at NY Jets - Monday Night Football trends
Houston has never beaten the Jets (0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS)
Texans 13-3 ATS past 16 games as favorite
Jets 1-7 ATS past 8 games as underdog
Texans 7-1 ATS past 8 road games
