Pittsburgh (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) is the NFL’s only team yet to taste defeat, but the Steelers could fall out of the division lead if they lose to Baltimore (5-1, 3-3). The Ravens have covered nine of their last 12 games following a bye week and opened as 5.5-point favorites.
- Date/Time: November 1, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium
- TV Coverage: CBS
- Sportsbook Odds: Ravens -5.5 | O/U 46.5 (Line History)
- Steelers vs Ravens Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
If the opener holds, it’ll be the second-largest spread between these rivals in the last nine meetings. However, early money on the Steelers moved this line to Baltimore -3.5 by Monday night. There was also some curious early movement on the total, which steamed up to 49 before dropping sharply to 46 at the time of writing.
Pittsburgh News & Notes
The Steelers might feel like they got away with one last week in Tennessee, when they nearly squandered a 24-7 halftime advantage in a 27-24 victory.
Ben Roethlisberger was intercepted three times – including an end-zone throw into triple coverage when the Steelers could have kicked a field goal to go up six late in the fourth – as the Steelers managed only three points in the second half.
However, any concerns about Pittsburgh’s defense missing star inside linebacker Devin Bush were put to rest. The Steelers held Derrick Henry and the Titans to just 15 first downs and 82 rushing yards in their first outing since the second-year linebacker suffered a season-ending knee injury.
After emerging as one of the Steelers’ top receivers with 184 yards and 11 catches in his previous two games, Chase Claypool caught one ball for minus-2 yards against the Titans. Instead, it was Diontae Johnson who was Pittsburgh’s most productive receiver, hauling in nine balls for 80 yards and two TDs. Johnson had caught just one pass in his previous two games after hauling in 14 in the first two weeks of the campaign.
Baltimore News & Notes
The Ravens are 9-3 ATS following a bye under head coach John Harbaugh, but that trend has cooled in recent years. After winning and covering their first five with an extra week to prepare under Harbaugh, Baltimore is just 4-3 ATS in its last seven in that situation.
The Ravens have also failed to cover their last two games as a favorite following their bye, and they’re just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 as home favorites overall.
Harbaugh likely spent most of the extra time trying to figure out how to spark the Ravens’ passing game. Lamar Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since Week 2 against Houston, when he threw for 205.
Jackson did miss a couple of practices recently due to a sore knee, but the defending NFL MVP still managed to run for 108 yards in his next game and has gained at least 50 on the ground in four of his last five.
Veteran running back Mark Ingram returned to practice Monday after being forced out of Baltimore’s previous game with an ankle injury. Harbaugh said Ingram’s availability for Pittsburgh will depend on how he performs in practice.
Betting Pick: Steelers +3.5
Pittsburgh’s second-ranked run defense should force the Ravens to beat them through the air, and I’m not convinced Baltimore can do it. I’ll grab the points in a game that has a strong chance to be decided by a field goal or less.
- Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 road games as a dog.
- Baltimore is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games as a home fave.
- The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.
