Bucs Visit Atlanta Seeking Second Straight Road Win

Tampa Bay (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games, but that cover came last week in Indianapolis. The Buccaneers opened as 9.5-point road favorites against the division rival Falcons (5-6, 5-6), whom they beat 48-25 in September.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Buccaneers are 1-3 ATS over the past two years when laying a touchdown or more on the road, including a 10-point loss at Washington last month. They’ve also had a tough time blowing out the Falcons in Atlanta over the years, winning by more than a touchdown just once in their last 13 visits.

Tampa Bay News & Notes

The Bucs earned a point spread cover for the first time in their last six road games last week in Indianapolis, but it didn’t come easy. Tampa Bay trailed by 10 points in the second half before fighting back to take the lead, then needed Leonard Fournette’s fourth touchdown of the game with 20 seconds left on the clock to prevail 38-31.

Three of Fournette’s four majors came on the ground, but the former first overall pick continues to be a big factor in Tampa Bay’s passing game. He ranks second on the team with 51 catches and is approaching 1,000 all-purpose yards on the campaign.

Although Tampa Bay’s defense also helped turn the game around by forcing five turnovers, the Buccaneers’ banged-up secondary continued to get lit up by opposing passers. Carson Wentz threw three touchdown passes last week as Tampa Bay allowed at least 29 points for the third time in its last four games.

Atlanta News & Notes

As Cordarrelle Patterson goes, so do the Falcons. After getting outscored 68-3 in its previous two games without its top running back, Atlanta rebounded with a 21-14 victory last week in Jacksonville by rushing for a season-high 149 yards. Patterson provided more than two-thirds of them, running for 108 yards on just 16 carries and scoring a pair of touchdowns.

He was also the Falcons’ second-leading pass-catcher as Matt Ryan and the offense continued to not push the ball down the field. Other than Russell Gage, who had six catches for 62 yards, Tajae Sharpe was the Falcons’ top receiver with two catches for 22 yards.

Prized rookie tight end Kyle Pitts has just five catches for 55 yards in Atlanta’s last two games and has not had more than 62 receiving yards in a game since a 163-yard effort at Miami in mid-October.

See Odds Shark’s Best NFL Sites

How Tampa Bay Will Cover

Turnovers and penalties have contributed to many of the Buccaneers’ road issues this season, but Tampa Bay was a lot cleaner in both departments last week in Indy. If the Bucs can avoid physical and mental miscues once again, they should be able to deliver a comfortable double-digit victory.

How Atlanta Will Cover

The Falcons were within three points of Tampa Bay in the fourth quarter of their meeting earlier this year, so they’re capable of hanging with the defending champs. Running the ball will prove hard against the Bucs’ stout rush defense, so Ryan and the offense need to take more chances downfield to exploit Tampa’s vulnerable secondary.

Computer Pick: Falcons +11

For all the Week 13 predictions, check out our NFL Computer Picks page.