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Week 13 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Nov 30, 2018 3:50 PM ET

With the calendar set to flip to December, many of us are prepared to enter the complete realm of madness otherwise known as the holiday season. It’s quite unfortunate, really, but the over-commercialization of Chrismas tends to lead to more stress and greed than happiness and I’m sick and tired of it, dammit!

So, what am I getting at exactly? To be honest, I’m not sure, I just wanted to get that off my chest and segue into how some NFL teams also enter a different realm in December, as a handful of teams have serious outlying betting records in the month that should be on your radar. To continue my December-related segue, here’s some December-specific trends to consider for your handicapping the next four weeks:

  • The Steelers are 18-2 SU in their last 20 games in December.
  • The Seahawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games in December.
  • The Patriots are 8-1 SU and ATS in their last nine games in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Chargers' last eight games in December.
  • The Lions are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Cowboys' last 12 games in December.
  • The Vikings are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in December.
  • The Panthers are 20-6 SU in their last 26 games in December.
  • The Chiefs are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games in December.
  • The Buccaneers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games at home in December.

Pretty cool, eh? Well, it depends on the situation, I suppose. I like trends for teams with long-standing QB/head coach pairings like the ones we see above for the Patriots, Steelers and Seahawks. Other ones aren’t much more than just interesting facts, but that’s for you to judge.

I feel the reasons for these extreme late-season numbers are rather simple in most cases — weather + motivation. In Seattle’s case, for example, their home-field advantage gets amplified by colder weather, plus they’ve been a pretty damn good team for a chunk of seasons now and their play has been at a high level down the stretch as they compete for playoff positioning.

Anyways, be nice in December, try to do most of your shopping online and one last tip — if your significant other is up for it, come to an agreement to not exchange Christmas gifts. Maybe buy something for your home or put the money toward a trip. It’ll save you a ton of grief! That’s right, I also offer relationship advice now so don’t hesitate to come to me with your problems.

On to the good stuff!

BEST BETS FOR WEEK 13

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 13 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, November 29:

  • Saints -4 first-half spread
  • Bills +4
  • Jaguars +4
  • Bears -0.5 first-half spread
  • Steelers -3.5 (more on this pick here)
  • Patriots + Panthers moneyline parlay (+118)
  • Ravens vs Falcons UNDER 48.5
  • Vikings vs Patriots OVER 49.5
  • Panthers vs Bucs OVER 54.5
  • Browns vs Texans OVER 47
  • Redskins vs Eagles UNDER 45

Stats and Trends for Week 13:

Saints at Cowboys
  • The Saints have a league-best 9-2 ATS record in the first half. Dallas’ first-half ATS record is 5-6.
  • The road team is 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in the last five TNF games and the total has gone OVER in seven of the last nine TNF games.
  • The Saints are averaging 43.75 points over their last four games. Over their last three games, they’re allowing just 12.67 points.
  • The Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Saints are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games. (Avg winning margin: 16.1)
  • The Saints are 9-0 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs the Cowboys.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Saints' last five games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 57.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Cowboys' last 20 games. (Avg combined score: 38.7)
  • The Cowboys are 4-1 SU in their last five games on Thursday.
  • The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games at home after covering in their most recent home game.
Bears at Giants
  • The Bears are averaging 31.75 points over their last eight games and are allowing just 15.4 points over their last five games.
  • The Bears have the best first-half point differential in the league at +9.45. The Giants are at -2.91.
  • The Bears are tied for the league lead in turnover differential.
  • The Bears are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games. (Avg winning margin: 14.0)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Bears' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 51.25)
  • The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Giants' last 17 games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.71)
  • The Giants are 0-9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Bears' last four games vs the Giants. (Avg combined score: 35.75)
  • The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Giants.
Bills at Dolphins
  • The Bills are averaging 13.14 points over their last seven road games.
  • The Bills rank 31st with a first-half point differential of -6.91.
  • Over their last three games, the Dolphins have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 16.67%. During this span, they’re allowing an opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage of 87.50%.
  • The Bills are allowing a league-low 193.7 passing yards per game. Over their last three games, they’ve allowed just 116.3 passing yards per game.
  • The Bills are 7-3 SU and ATS in their last 10 games vs the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bills' last six games vs the Dolphins. (Avg combined score: 50.17)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Dolphins' last five games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.2)
  • The Dolphins are 6-2 SU in their last eight games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Bills' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.2)
  • The Bills are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after consecutive ATS wins.
Broncos at Bengals
  • The Broncos are 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
  • The Broncos are 15-4 SU in their last 19 games vs the Bengals.
  • The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bengals' last four games. (Avg combined score: 59.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Broncos' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 45.71)
  • There's nothing very interesting about this game.
Browns at Texans
  • The Texans are averaging 32 points over their last three home games.
  • The Texans have the second-best first-half spread record in the NFL at 8-3 ATS.
  • Browns road games have had an average combined score of 56.2 this season.
  • The Browns are tied for the league lead in turnover differential.
  • Over their last three games, the Browns have a red-zone TD scoring percentage of 100%
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Browns' last eight games vs the Texans. (Avg combined score: 34.88)
  • The Browns are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Texans. (Avg losing margin: 15.0)
Cardinals at Packers
  • The Cardinals are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 games with an early afternoon start time.
  • Over their last 11 games, the Cardinals are averaging just 14.09 points.
  • The Cardinals have the worst first-half point differential in the NFL at -7.82.
  • The Cardinals rank dead last in net yards per play both overall and on the road. The Packers are tied for second in net yards per play at home.
  • At home, the Packers have a league-best opponents' red-zone TD scoring percentage of 36.36%.
  • The Cardinals are passing for a league-low 141.6 yards per game on the road.
  • The Cardinals are 0-7 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Packers.
  • The Packers are 11-0 SU and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone OVER in 24 of the Packers' last 34 games. (Avg combined score: 48.21)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Cardinals' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 45.29)
  • The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in December. 
Colts at Jaguars
  • The Colts are averaging 34.6 points over their last five games. The Jaguars are averaging 15.57 points over their last seven games.
  • Jaguars home games have an average combined score of 35.67 this season. This is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Colts are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs the Jaguars.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Colts' last four games vs the Jaguars. (Avg combined score: 41.5)
  • The Jaguars are 0-7 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. (Avg losing margin: 11.14)
  • The Jaguars are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Jaguars' last eight games in December.
  • The Colts are 15-6 SU and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Colts are 5-0 SU in their last five games. (Avg winning margin: 16.0)
Panthers at Buccaneers
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Panthers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 59.2)
  • The total has gone OVER in nine of the Buccaneers' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 57.25)
  • The Bucs have a league-worst turnover differential of -21.
  • The Panthers are rushing for a league-best 174.7 yards in home games.
  • The Panthers are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Panthers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games on the road vs the Buccaneers.
  • The Buccaneers are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games at home in December.
  • The Buccaneers are 2-7 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Panthers are 1-8 SU in their last nine games vs their division on the road.
  • The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as favorite.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Panthers' last five games vs the Buccaneers. (Avg combined score: 39.0)
Rams at Lions
  • Rams games have an average combined score of 61 this season. This is the second-highest in the league.
  • The Rams are averaging 33.14 points over their last seven road games.
  • The Rams are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games after a bye.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Lions' last five games. (Avg combined score: 41.8)
  • The Lions are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 games in December.
  • The Lions are 6-1 SU in their last seven games when hosting a West Coast team.
  • Please reach out if you come across any trends for how the Lions perform when Matt Patricia is wearing his hat backwards as opposed to frontwards. 
Ravens at Falcons
  • The Ravens have allowed just 15.5 points over their last four road games.
  • Ravens road games have had an average combined score of 39.2 this season.
  • The Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Falcons allow a league-high 328.2 passing yards per game at home.
  • The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs the Falcons. (Keep in mind, the last time they played was in 2014, so this is more of just an interesting fact. Or maybe you don’t find it interesting at all. The choice is yours.)
  • The Falcons are 6-2 SU in their last eight games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Falcons' last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The Ravens are 1-7 SU in their last eight games after consecutive wins.
  • The Ravens are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road after consecutive home games.
49ers at Seahawks
  • The Seahawks are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 home games in December.
  • The 49ers have the worst first-half spread record in the NFL at 3-8 ATS.
  • On the road, the 49ers have a league-worst red-zone TD scoring percentage of 37.50%.
  • The 49ers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games vs the Seahawks. (Avg losing margin: 11.11)
  • The 49ers are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the 49ers' last 11 games vs the Seahawks. (Avg combined score: 34.55)
  • The Seahawks are 45-12 SU in their last 57 games at home.
  • The Seahawks are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The 49ers are 0-6 SU in their last six games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 7.5)
Chiefs at Raiders
  • The Chiefs are averaging 38.17 points over their last six games while the Raiders have allowed 32.8 points over their last five home games. The Raiders are also averaging just 12.25 points over their last four games.
  • Chiefs road games have an average combined score of 73.5 this season. This is the highest in the NFL.
  • The Chiefs are allowing a league-high 297.2 passing yards per game.
  • The Chiefs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games.
  • The Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Chiefs' last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 70.13)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Chiefs' last five games vs the Raiders. (Avg combined score: 42.4)
  • The Chiefs are 11-4 SU and ATS in their last 15 games on the road vs the Raiders.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Raiders' last 18 games. (Avg combined score: 43.22)
  • The Chiefs are 7-0 SU in their last seven games vs divisional opponents. (Avg winning margin: 8.86)
Jets at Titans
  • The average combined score in Titans games this season is 38 points. This is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The Jets have an 8-3 ATS first-half record.
  • The Jets are averaging 9.33 points over their last three road games.
  • Over their last three games, the Titans are allowing a league-worst opponents' red-zone scoring percentage of 99.89%.
  • The Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games. (Avg losing margin: 17.2)
  • The Jets are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
  • The Jets are 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Titans.
  • The total has gone UNDER in three of the Jets' last four games vs the Titans. (Avg combined score: 35.0)
  • The Titans are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.
Vikings at Patriots
  • The Patriots are 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 14.75)
  • Patriots home games have had an average combined score of 57 points. Vikings road games have had an average combined score of 54 points.
  • The Patriots are averaging 37.5 points over their last four road games.
  • The Vikings are rushing for a league-low 61.8 yards per game on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Vikings' last six games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 39.5)
  • The Vikings are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 16.0)
  • The Patriots are 7-1 SU in their last eight games.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Patriots' last 18 games at home in December.
  • The Vikings are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games in December.
  • The Vikings are 18-6-1 SU in their last 25 games.
Chargers at Steelers
  • The Steelers are 14-1 SU in their last 15 night games. The average win margin in the 14 wins was 13.14. At home, they’re 6-1 SU in their last seven night games with an average win margin of 20.33 in the 6 wins.
  • The Steelers are averaging 42 points over their last three home games.
  • At home, the Steelers have a league-best red-zone TD scoring percentage of 87.50%.
  • The Steelers are 18-2 SU in their last 20 games in December.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the last 11 SNF games and the favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six SNF games.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Steelers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 62.86)
  • The Steelers are 7-0-1 SU in their last eight games after a loss.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Chargers' last four games vs the Steelers. (Avg combined score: 56.75)
  • The Chargers are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games on the road vs the Steelers.
  • The Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Chargers are 1-5 SU in their last six games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Chargers' last 11 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 39.18)
  • The Chargers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games on the road after consecutive home games.
Redskins at Eagles
  • The Eagles are allowing just 14.27 points over their last 11 home games.
  • The road team is 5-1-1 in the last seven MNF games and the total has gone OVER in four straight MNF games.
  • The Redskins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs the Eagles.
  • The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorite.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Redskins' last five games vs the Eagles. (Avg combined score: 52.6)
  • The Eagles are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Redskins' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.43)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Eagles' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.33)
  • The Redskins are 3-7 SU and ATS in their last 10 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Redskins are 6-0 SU in their last six games after consecutive losses.

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