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Week 16 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Joe Osborne Published on: Dec 19, 2018 9:26 AM ET

A few weeks ago, I wrote about trying to find an edge late in the season based on motivational factors of teams either making a push for the playoffs or potentially tanking to improve their draft position. There was a little bit of a nugget there, but using the same criteria of looking at matchups between teams that are well out of playoff contention vs teams that are still in the mix specific to Weeks 16 and 17, I found some surprising results.

Over the past two seasons, teams that are three games below .500 or worse are 17-9-1 ATS (65.3 percent) vs teams at .500 or better. Going further back to 2011, the percentage drops off a bit but is still profitable at 54 percent.

Here’s the spots where you can bet this in Week 16:

  • Bucs at Cowboys
  • Giants at Colts
  • Lions hosting Vikings
  • Jaguars at Dolphins
  • Bills at Patriots
  • 49ers hosting Bears
  • Cardinals hosting Rams

I think the general assumption at this time of year might be that teams that are out of it aren’t giving their best effort, but we must keep in mind that these players and coaches have a lot on the line. Some coaches are trying to hang on to their jobs, while others are looking to get promoted. There’s lots of players hoping to make a good impression to stay on a roster while others have expiring contracts and will be looking to cash in as free agents.

Good luck in Week 16 and no matter what holiday you celebrate, I wish you peace, happiness, a fridge full of ICE-COLD BEER and a pocket full of cash!

BEST BETS FOR WEEK 16:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 16 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, December 20:

  • Bills +13.5
  • Giants +10
  • Buccaneers +7.5
  • Texans +1.5
  • Dolphins -4
  • Bears -2.5 first-half spread
  • Chiefs -0.5 first-half spread (more on this pick here)
  • Vikings vs Lions UNDER 42.5
  • Texans vs Eagles UNDER 46
  • Chargers + Falcons ML Parlay +122

STATS AND TRENDS FOR WEEK 16:

Redskins at Titans
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Saturday regular-season games.
  • The Titans have held opponents to an NFL-best 42.11% red-zone TD scoring percentage. Over their last three games, that number is down to 14.29%!
  • The Titans rank first in net yards per play over their last three games. The Redskins rank 27th over this span.
  • Over their last three games, the Ravens are rushing for an NFL-best 214.3 yards per game.
  • The Titans have allowed an average of just 13.67 points over their last three home games.
  • The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home.
  • The Titans are 6-15 SU in their last 21 games after consecutive wins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Redskins' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 35.2)
  • The Redskins are 4-12 SU in their last 16 games after a win.
  • The Redskins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games vs the Titans.
Ravens at Chargers
  • The Chargers are averaging 33.25 points per game over their last four games.
  • The Ravens are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Ravens are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games on the West Coast.
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Ravens' last seven games on the West Coast.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Ravens' last six games vs the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 50.33)
  • The Chargers are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games.
  • The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when hosting an East Coast team.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 14 of the Chargers' last 17 games in December.
  • The Ravens are 15-6 SU in their last 21 games at night.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Saturday regular-season games.
Bengals at Browns
  • The Bengals are allowing 32.75 points over their last four road games.
  • The Browns rank second in net yards per play over their last three games. The Bengals rank 29th over this span.
  • Over their last three games, the Browns are tied for an NFL-best 83.33% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Bengals are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games vs the Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Bengals' last five games on the road vs the Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 15 of the Browns' last 19 games at home. (Avg combined score: 38.37)
  • The Browns are 2-18-1 SU and 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Bengals' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 51.86)
  • The Bengals are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Bills at Patriots
  • The Patriots are averaging 34.8 points over their last five home games. The Bills are averaging 13.63 points over their last eight road games.
  • On the road, the Bills allow an NFL-low 191.6 passing yards per game.
  • The Patriots are 13-0 SU and 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games at home. (Avg winning margin: 14.69)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 41.57)
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Bills' last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 36.5)
  • The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs the Patriots.
  • The Bills are 2-15 SU in their last 17 games on the road vs the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 20-2 SU in their last 22 games vs their division at home.
Buccaneers at Cowboys
  • Over their last three games, the Cowboys have an NFL-worst 18.18% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Buccaneers have allowed an average of 37 points over their last seven road games.
  • The Cowboys are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Buccaneers are 3-0 ATS in their last three games vs the Cowboys.
  • The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the Buccaneers' last 12 games vs the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 31.58)
  • The Buccaneers are 1-11 SU in their last 12 games on the road vs the Cowboys.
  • The Cowboys are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Cowboys' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 44.67)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Buccaneers' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 65.0)
  • The Buccaneers are 0-9 SU in their last nine games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Falcons at Panthers
  • The Falcons are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games vs the Panthers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Falcons' last 11 games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 43.91)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Falcons' last 10 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 43.1)
  • The Falcons are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Falcons are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road.
  • The Panthers are 12-2 SU in their last 14 games at home vs teams with losing records.
Giants at Colts
  • The Giants have an NFL-worst 4-10 first-half ATS record.
  • The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Colts' last five games. (Avg combined score: 34.6)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Giants' last five games vs the Colts. (Avg combined score: 56.0)
  • The Giants are 0-3 SU and ATS in their last three games vs the Colts. (Avg losing margin: 15.0)
  • The visiting team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 games in this matchup.
  • The Colts are 18-6 SU in their last 24 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Giants are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
  • The Giants are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a double-digit underdog.
Jaguars at Dolphins
  • Over their last three games, the Dolphins are tied for an NFL-best 83.33% red-zone TD scoring percentage. Over the Jaguars’ last three games, they have a brutal 20% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Jaguars rank 29th in net yards per play on the road.
  • Jaguars games have had an average combined score of 36.71 this season. This is the lowest in the NFL.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Dolphins' last 19 games at home. (Avg combined score: 47.47)
  • The total has gone OVER in the Jaguars' last four games on the road. (Avg combined score: 46.5)
  • The Dolphins are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Dolphins are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven games at home.
  • The Jaguars are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 15.2)
  • The Jaguars are 0-9 SU in their last nine games on the road in December.
  • The Jaguars are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four games vs the Dolphins.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Jaguars' last six games vs the Dolphins. (Avg combined score: 33.67)
Packers at Jets
  • The Jets rank last in net yards per play over their last three games and are tied for second-last over the course of the entire season.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Jets' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 53.67)
  • The Packers are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS on the road this season.
  • The Packers are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games vs the Jets.
  • The total has gone OVER in three of the Packers' last four games vs the Jets. (Avg combined score: 42.75)
  • The Jets are 1-7 SU in their last eight games.
  • The Jets are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games in the early afternoon.
  • The Packers are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Packers' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 46.38)
  • The Packers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on the road after failing to cover in their two most recent road games.
Texans at Eagles
  • Over their last 12 home games, the Eagles are allowing just 14.17 points per game.
  • At home, the Eagles are holding opponents to an NFL-best 38.46% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Eagles' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 40.43)
  • Over their last three games, the Texans are allowing an NFL-high 337 passing yards per game.
  • The Eagles are 1-5 SU in their last six games after a win.
  • The Texans are 0-4 SU in their last four games vs the Eagles. (Avg losing margin: 13.0)
  • The Eagles are 9-2 SU and ATS in their last 11 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The Texans are 5-0 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg winning margin: 5.4)
  • The Texans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Texans' last five games in December.
Vikings at Lions
  • The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Vikings' last 10 games vs the Lions. (Avg combined score: 34.0)
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Lions' last five games. (Avg combined score: 34.2)
  • Over their last three games, the Vikings are allowing an NFL-low 136 passing yards per game. At home, they allow an NFL-low 160.7 passing yards per game.
  • The Vikings are 27-11 SU in their last 38 games vs the Lions.
  • The Lions are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Vikings are 7-1-1 SU in their last nine games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs their division on the road.
  • The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games as favorite.
Steelers at Saints
  • The Saints are averaging 41.75 points over their last four home games.
  • Saints home games have had an average combined score of 62 this season.
  • The Steelers rank second in net yards per play on the road.
  • The Steelers lead the league with a 76.74% red-zone TD scoring percentage.
  • The Saints are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Steelers' last five games. (Avg combined score: 42.4)
  • The Steelers are 10-2-1 SU in their last 13 games on the road.
  • The Steelers are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road in December.
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Steelers' last five games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 55.6)
  • The visiting team is 1-4 SU in the last five games in this matchup.
  • The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four games at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the Saints' last 18 games in the late afternoon.
Bears at 49ers
  • The Bears have covered the first-half spread in seven straight games and have a league-best +8.5 first-half point differential. The 49ers are at -2.07.
  • The Bears lead the NFL in turnover differential at +13. The 49ers are last at -22.
  • The 49ers have an NFL-worst 41.86% red-zone TD scoring percentage. Over their last three games, it’s at a brutal 22.22%. The Bears are allowing a 25% opponents red-zone scoring percentage over their last three games.
  • The Bears are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games.
  • The 49ers are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games at home vs teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the 49ers' last 11 games in the late afternoon.
  • The Bears are 5-17 SU in their last 22 games on the road.
  • The Bears are 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine games on the road vs the 49ers.
Rams at Cardinals
  • The Cardinals have the worst first-half point differential in the league at -7.93.
  • Over their last seven home games, the Cardinals are averaging just 12.71 points per game.
  • Cardinals home games have had an average combined score of 35.57 this season.
  • The Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS in their last three games vs the Cardinals. (Avg winning margin: 27.67)
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams' last five games on the road. (Avg combined score: 47.8)
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Cardinals' last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 32.33)
  • The Cardinals are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division at home.
  • The Cardinals are 1-5 SU in their last six games.
  • The Rams are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
  • The Rams are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games on the road.
Chiefs at Seahawks
  • The Seahawks rank last in net yards per play at home. The Chiefs rank third on the road.
  • Chiefs road games this season have had an average combined score of 73.43 which is the highest in the NFL.
  • The Seahawks are allowing 15.67 points per game over their last three home games. The Chiefs are averaging 42.67 points over their last three road games.
  • Seattle is 18-5 ATS as a home underdog since December 2008.
  • Kansas City has the best first-half spread record in the NFL — 11-3 ATS. They have the second-best first-half point differential at +6.86. The Seahawks are at +1.79.
  • Seattle is 24-6-4 ATS in its last 34 night games, 15-3-3 ATS in its last 21 night games at home and 9-0 ATS in its last nine December night games.
  • The Chiefs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games.
  • The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs' last four games. (Avg combined score: 71.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Seahawks' last six games. (Avg combined score: 51.83)
  • The Seahawks are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games after a loss.
  • The Chiefs are 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games at night.
  • At home, Seattle rushes for an NFL-best 168.7 yards per game.
Broncos at Raiders
  • Raiders home games have had an average combined score of 53.86 this season — more than 10 points higher than their road average.
  • The Raiders have allowed an average of 32.14 points over their last seven home games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last four games vs the Raiders. (Avg combined score: 32.5)
  • The Broncos are 11-4 SU in their last 15 games on the road vs the Raiders.
  • The Raiders are 0-6 SU in their last six games vs divisional opponents. (Avg losing margin: 11.5)
  • The total has gone OVER in four of the Raiders' last five games. (Avg combined score: 51.8)
  • The Raiders are 8-21 ATS in their last 29 games at home vs teams with losing records.
  • The Broncos are 4-13 SU and 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games on the road.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Broncos' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 39.43)

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