One of the first lessons a bettor should learn is to not get too high after a win and not get too low after a loss. In other words, don’t overreact. The same approach should be used for Week 2 of the NFL season as I think a few of the lines are an overreaction to what we saw in Week 1.
The Sportsbook week of the season often produces some funky results and we don’t have to go back far for an example. Remember when the Chiefs smashed the Patriots 42-27 as an 8-point underdog in Week 1 last season? Talk of the Patriots’ demise dominated the news cycle until they responded by laying the smack down on the Saints in Week 2, winning by 16 points.
The Patriots were only a 6-point favorite in that game vs a Saints team that was coming off a double-digit loss and had gone three straight seasons without a playoff appearance. Things immediately went back to normal the following week when they were a 13.5-point favorite vs the Texans.
With that said, here are two lines that I think are an overreaction to Week 1 performances:
- Jets -3 vs Dolphins: New York opened at -1 but the line moved a full 2 points following their destruction of the Lions on Monday night. Detroit literally threw that game away, giving up five interceptions, and the Jets also had a punt return for a TD. A lot of random events worked in their favor and this is unlikely to occur vs a Dolphins team coming off a solid win in Week 1. Let’s not forget that the Jets are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games.
- Saints -9 vs Browns: This is an overreaction to the Saints’ Week 1 loss and reminds me of the New England example above. I think the Saints would be closer to -12 had they not had a letdown vs an underrated Tampa squad. Make no mistake about it, the Browns were awful last week. They had -2.1 net yards per play (second worst in the league) and they could only muster a tie at home after being gifted SIX turnovers. Nine points is a lot to swallow for a team coming off a loss, but the Saints should be a bigger favorite.
My best bets for week 2:
Based primarily on my opinions above and the data below, here’s my picks for Week 2 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, September 13:
- Saints -9
- Chiefs +4.5
- Dolphins +3
- Patriots -1
- Seahawks +3.5
- UNDER 42.5 Giants vs Cowboys (more on that here)
- UNDER 44.5 Panthers vs Falcons
- Todd Gurley to score a TD (-280)
Week 2 trends and stats:
- Over the last three seasons, when a home favorite of 7 points or more lost outright (Saints in Week 1), they went 16-8-2 ATS the following week.
- The Browns have 19 double-digit losses since Hue Jackson took over as head coach in 2016. Going back to October 2015, 26 of their 40 losses were by double digits.
- The Browns are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of more than 7 points.
- The Browns are 0-21 SU in their last 21 games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 12.76)
- The Browns are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Saints' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 58.0)
- The Saints are 8-1 SU in their last nine games at home.
- The Saints are 0-5 SU and ATS in their last five games at home in September.
- In a game vs the Saints last season as a member of the Bills, Tyrod Taylor had a 33.6 QB rating.
- The Chargers beat the Bills 54-24 last season as a 6.5-point favorite. Keenan Allen had 159 receiving yards and 2 TDs.
- The Chargers are 17-5 SU in their last 22 games against the Bills.
- The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chargers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 39.43)
- The Chargers are 6-1 SU in their last seven games as favorite.
- The Chargers are 7-18 SU in their last 25 games on the road.
- The Steelers defeated the Chiefs last season 19-13 in Kansas City as a 3.5-point underdog. Antonio Brown had 155 receiving yards and a TD.
- The Steelers averaged 29.8 points per game at home last season — second-best in the NFL. They also allowed the third-most points per game at home with 25.8.
- The Chiefs are 1-6 SU in their last seven games against the Steelers.
- The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Chiefs' last seven games against the Steelers. (Avg combined score: 34.57)
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Steelers' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.86)
- The Steelers are 20-3-1 SU in their last 24 games as favorite. Their margin of victory in the 20 wins is 10.2.
- The Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Chiefs' last 10 games. (Avg combined score: 44.7)
- The Chiefs are 11-4 SU and ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
- The Chiefs are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in September.
- The Texans have been a road favorite just four times since 2014. They’re 4-0 SU and ATS in those games.
- Deshaun Watson threw four TD passes in a game vs the Titans last season, leading the Texans to a 57-14 win.
- The Texans are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against the Titans.
- The Texans are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the Titans.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Titans' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 45.29)
- The Titans are 1-5 SU in their last six games at home in September.
- The Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games.
- The Texans are 0-8 SU in their last eight games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 13.0)
- The Vikings are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games against the Packers.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Vikings' last seven games against the Packers. (Avg combined score: 37.71)
- Aaron Rodgers is involved in a romantic relationship with Danica Patrick.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Packers' last seven games. (Avg combined score: 45.29)
- The Packers are 26-9 SU in their last 35 games at home.
- The Packers are 36-13-1 SU in their last 50 games vs divisional opponents.
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Vikings' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 44.14)
- The Vikings are 5-0 SU in their last five games vs divisional opponents.
- The Vikings are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
- In 19 career regular-season games vs the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has 39 TD passes and six INTs with a 111.7 QB rating.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Redskins' last five games. (Avg combined score: 34.8)
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Colts' last nine games. (Avg combined score: 37.33)
- The Redskins are 14-6 SU in their last 20 games in the early afternoon.
- The Colts allowed 29 points per game on the road last season.
- I dug, but there's not much interesting data for this game. I would apologize, but it's not my fault.
- The total has gone OVER in nine of the Dolphins' last 12 games. (Avg combined score: 48.0)
- The Dolphins are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games against their division on the road.
- The Dolphins averaged just 12.4 points per game on the road last season — worst in the NFL.
- The Dolphins are 0-5 SU in their last five games on the road. (Avg losing margin: 21.2)
- The total has gone OVER in four of the Dolphins' last five games against the Jets. (Avg combined score: 48.0)
- The Dolphins are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road against the Jets.
- The Jets are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games at home.
- The Jets are 1-8 SU in their last nine games in the early afternoon.
- In nine career games vs the Jets, Ryan Tannehill has a 72 QB rating — his second-lowest vs any team he’s played more than twice.
- The Eagles are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as favorite.
- The Eagles are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games against the Buccaneers.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Buccaneers' last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 37.17)
- The Bucs allowed a league-high 29.2 points per game at home last season.
- The Buccaneers are 1-7 SU in their last eight games at home in September.
- The total has gone OVER in 15 of the Eagles' last 20 games on the road. (Avg combined score: 52.15)
- The Eagles are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in September.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Falcons' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 33.38)
- The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Panthers' last 10 games against the Falcons. (Avg combined score: 42.8)
- In two games vs the Falcons last season, Cam Newton had a 47.8 QB rating with 1 TD and 3 INTs.
- The Panthers are 2-8 SU and ATS in their last 10 games on the road against the Falcons. Their losing margin in the 8 losses was 12 points.
- The Falcons are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games at home in September.
- The Falcons are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games vs divisional opponents.
- The Panthers are 1-7 SU in their last eight games against their division on the road.
- The Panthers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
- The Patriots are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 regular-season games
- Blake Bortles’ QB rating was 28.6 points higher at home last season.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Patriots' last five games against the Jaguars. (Avg combined score: 48.8)
- The Patriots are 8-0 SU in their last eight games against the Jaguars. (Avg winning margin: 15.75)
- The Jaguars are 6-0 SU in their last six games at home. (Avg winning margin: 15.0)
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jaguars' last five games. (Avg combined score: 40.8)
- The Patriots are 14-1 SU and 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games on the road.
- The Patriots are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games in the late afternoon.
- The Patriots are 21-0 SU in their last 21 games against AFC South teams. (Avg winning margin: 17.0)
- The 49ers allowed a league-high 28.1 points per game at home last season.
- The 49ers are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as home favorites.
- The Lions are 0-12 SU in their last 12 games on the road against the 49ers. (Avg losing margin: 13.83)
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Lions' last eight games against the 49ers. (Avg combined score: 39.5)
- The 49ers are 3-12 SU and 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the 49ers' last five games at home in September.
- The Lions are 8-21 SU in their last 29 games on the road in September.
- The Lions are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games on the West Coast. Their losing margin in the 13 losses is 13.27.
- The Broncos are 71-17 SU at home in September since 1975.
- In two games vs the Broncos last season, Derek Carr had a 120.7 QB rating with 3 TD passes and 0 INTs.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Raiders' last three games against the Broncos. (Avg combined score: 30.33)
- The Raiders averaged just 14.4 points per game on the road last season — second fewest in the NFL.
- The Raiders are 1-5 SU in their last six games on the road against the Broncos.
- The Broncos are 12-0 SU in their last 12 games at home in September. Their average margin of victory in these games is 13.9.
- The Broncos are 3-10 SU and 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 games.
- The total has gone OVER in the Broncos' last seven games in September.
- The Raiders are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road.
- The Rams outscored the Cardinals 65-16 in two games last season. They easily covered in both games. Todd Gurley compiled 312 total yards and a rushing TD in those games.
- The Rams were a double-digit favorite just once last season, at -13 vs the Texans. They won 33-7.
- The Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on the road against the Rams.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams' last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 44.14)
- The Cardinals are 8-1 SU in their last nine divisional road games.
- The Cardinals are 8-1 SU in their last nine games after a loss.
- The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the late afternoon.
- These teams combined for just 23 points in Week 1.
- Dallas has scored fewer than 10 points in five of its last nine games.
- The Cowboys are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite.
- The Giants are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against the Cowboys.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Giants' last four games against the Cowboys. (Avg combined score: 29.5)
- Remember when the Giants went on that boat before a playoff game, then lost?
- The Cowboys are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home in September.
- The Cowboys are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys' last five games. (Avg combined score: 28.0)
- The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Giants' last eight games. (Avg combined score: 35.13)
- In two games vs the Giants last season, Dak Prescott threw for 600 yards and 4 TDs.
- The Giants are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games against their division on the road.
- The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in September.
- Since Pete Carroll became the Seahawks head coach in 2010, they’re 24-4-1 SU and 21-5-3 ATS in prime-time games.
- In 24 career night games, Russell Wilson is 19-4-1 SU with a 105.9 QB rating — his highest of any time. Specific to Monday, he’s 6-1 SU with a 116.8 QB rating.
- Seattle allowed the second-fewest points per game on the road last season at 17.2.
- The Bears are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games on Monday.
- The total has gone OVER in eight of the Seahawks' last nine games against the Bears. (Avg combined score: 45.67)
- The Seahawks are 3-0 SU in their last three games against the Bears. (Avg winning margin: 18.67)
- The Bears are 1-11 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games in September.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bears' last eight games at home. (Avg combined score: 34.88)
- The total has gone UNDER in five of the Seahawks' last seven games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.57)
- Russell Wilson is married to Ciara, a singer, who was previously engaged to Future, a rapper.
- The Seahawks are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games on Monday. Their margin of victory in the 11 wins was 14.73.
- The Seahawks are 3-16-1 ATS in their last 20 road games in September.
- The Ravens are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs divisional opponents.
- The total has gone UNDER in three of the Ravens' last four games against the Bengals. (Avg combined score: 37.0)
- The Bengals averaged just 17 points per game at home last season — third-fewest in the league.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the Bengals' last seven games at night.
- The Bengals are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games vs the Ravens.
- The Ravens are 2-7 SU in their last nine games against the Bengals.
- The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
- The Bengals are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home in September.
- The Ravens are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games on the road.
- Andy Dalton had a 58.3 QB rating vs the Ravens last season.
