Week 3 NFL Stats and Trends Betting Primer

You MUST keep an open mind. No, I’m not talking about being more receptive to the pitfalls of online dating, I’m talking about being open to change with your betting approach.

This is my primary goal with my 2019 NFL betting. In Week 2, I did something that I would never have previously done, and that was picking the Cardinals to cover a +13 spread in Baltimore. The past few seasons, this would have been a stay-away spot for me, but I’m slowly learning that it’s necessary to step outside of my comfort zone and pull the trigger on bets that look ugly based on recent performances and reputations.

If you have any experience with sports betting whatsoever, then you realize things don’t often work out the way they should based on what the stats and trends are telling us. If they did, then we’d all be rich.

That brings me to my point when looking at some underperforming teams coming into Week 3. We come into the week with eight teams that are 0-2 ATS: Dolphins, Jets, Steelers, Eagles, Giants, Bears, Saints and Panthers.

For a multitude of reasons, I’d say everyone on that 0-2 ATS list outside of maybe the Eagles is very hard to put your trust in this weekend, but this has been a very profitable spot over the years.

Over the last three seasons, teams that started 0-2 ATS have an ATS record of 16-5 in Week 3!

Over the last three seasons, teams that started 0-2 ATS have an ATS record of 16-5 (76%) in Week 3! A bigger sample size has them at 23-12 ATS (65.7%) over the last five seasons and 44-32 ATS (57.8%) over the last 10 seasons.

That right there is all the proof required to show that sometimes ‘”ugly” picks are good picks, so keep an open mind with your picks this season … and also be open to the flaws of people you come across in the online dating world. You’re not perfect either.

How to get an Upgrade at a Las Vegas Hotel

I had a pretty good response to last week’s post where I laid out my process for maximizing your beer drinking experience on game day, so here’s another tip that will hopefully maximize your Las Vegas hotel experience on your next trip to the city.

Simply checking in to the room that you paid for is a chump move when visiting a tourist trap like Vegas. Next-level hospitality is at the forefront of what the mega casino/hotels offer, and getting an upgrade is more common than you think — you just have to know how to ask, because you likely won’t get one if you don’t try.

Here’s the three different options I’ve used that have all worked:

The $20 trick: This is the most common and most genuine approach. When checking in, you’re required to present an ID and a credit card. You simply place a folded $20 bill between the cards, pass them to the employee, and ask “Are there any upgrades available?” It’s a wink-wink move that both sides are in on, and it’s worked for me almost every time I did it. If you’re there for a longer stay, consider a $50 bill instead.

The TripAdvisor honeymooners: When checking in with your romantic partner in tow, enthusiastically mention that you did a lot of research on TripAdvisor and that you’re excited to finally be staying at (insert hotel name) to celebrate your honeymoon, engagement, etc. It’s a few things jammed into a sentence but it works because A: It’s a special trip for you and they want your stay to be memorable so you’ll come back, and B: They want to please an active TripAdvisor user to get a positive review. This move requires a bit of acting on your part.

The liar: This is the greasiest and least honorable option because it involves flat-out lying, but sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures. Many hotels have kiosk check-in options in the lobby that get you into a room quicker. The major drawback is that there’s no wiggle room to discuss room options and, like what happened to me, you could end up in a lower-level room with a great view of the parking lot. If this happens to you, call the lobby and complain that the room reeks of cigarette smoke and you’re severely allergic. I did this and was immediately placed on a higher floor with a fantastic view of the Strip.

Each move requires a little bit of boldness on your part, and your odds of getting a better room are better if checking in Sunday through Wednesday when hotel occupancy will be at its lowest. My efforts have resulted in something as simple as getting a room with a great view to getting upgraded from an entry-level room to a suite.

Try one of the techniques on your next trip and let me know how it goes. Good luck and KEEP CHASING THAT PAPER!

Here’s the best trends and stats for Week 3’s action: