Make the playoffs. That's the goal for the Buffalo Sabres this season. That's it. Just end the 12-year drought and make the God damned NHL playoffs. In my Buffalo Sabres 2024-25 I'll look at if they can make the postseason for the first time since Minecraft was released.
Buffalo Sabres 2024 Offseason Acquisitions
- Traded for Ryan McLeod from the Edmonton Oilers
- Signed Jason Zucker to a one-year contract
- Signed James Reimer to a one-year contract
- Signed Colton Poolman to a one-year contract
Buffalo Sabres 2024 Offseason Departures
- Zemgus Girgensons signed with the Tampa Bay Lightning
- Tyson Jost signed with the Carolina Hurricanes
- Victor Olofsson signed with the Vegas Golden Knights
- Eric Comrie signed with the Winnipeg Jets
Buffalo Sabres Road Map To The Playoffs
Twelve years is a stupidly long time to miss the playoffs. Specifically in a league that prides itself on parity. The Buffalo Sabres fly in the face of that narrative.
Last year Buffalo was only seven points back of a playoff spot. Picking up an extra three wins and an overtime loss would have broken the drought. That's how close they came last year. So, can this be their year?
Making the playoffs in 2024-25 will depend on (1) their stars shining and (2) how well they play within their division.
Getting More From Their Stars
If Buffalo is going to make the playoffs they've got to get more from their top players like Rasmus Dahlin and Tage Thompson. Both had down years in 2023-24, Tage put in nearly 20 fewer goals while Dahlin scored around 20 fewer points!
Books believe both will bounce back with regular season total lines above their production from last season.
| OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|
| O62.5 (-110) | U62.5 (-110) |
Odds as of October 1
This is an absurdly low line considering Dahlin scored 73 points in 78 games two seasons ago. With 59 points in 81 games last year, books are asking: "Can Dahlin score 4 more points this year?" Of course, he can!
A big source of Dahlin's production drop-off came on the powerplay where he scored 12 fewer points. Coincidentally, that's where Tage Thompson saw his big drop off last year too, with 11 fewer PP goals.
Assuming Tage Thompson returns to shooting at a nearly 13% career average and gets his typically 250-ish shots on the net you're looking at a minimum of 33 goals. I'd take the OVER on Dahlin's points totals.
| Market | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|
| Regular Season Goals - 36.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Regular Season Points - 70.5 | -110 | -110 |
Odds as of October 1
Again, that's a minimum of 33 goals. Thompson put a crazy 296 shots on net last year and only converted on 11.8%. Which is way below his 13% conversion rate in all situations and that 24% on the power play from two years ago. I'd hit the OVER on his goal total.
Will Inter-Division Play Sink Buffalo?
Buffalo will likely get more out of their star players. Great, how about factor number 2; inter-divisional games?
A third of their season is played within the Atlantic. Getting into the playoffs will depend on banking enough points off their division rivals. But sadly, over the past three seasons, Buffalo holds a 31-38-9 record (0.46 points percentage) in the NHL's Eastern-most division. Not ideal.
Last year, only a single team in the East made the playoffs and held an inter-divisional points percentage below 50%. That was the Toronto Maple Leafs with an 11-12-3 record (0.48 points percentage).
Judging by the Atlantic Division winner odds sportsbooks believe that Buffalo will struggle within the Atlantic. They've got the seventh-best odds to win their division at +1600.
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Florida Panthers | +235 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | +265 |
| Boston Bruins | +500 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | +500 |
| Ottawa Senators | +1200 |
| Detroit Red Wings | +1450 |
| Buffalo Sabres | +1600 |
| Montreal Canadiens | +8000 |
Odds as of October 1
It's impossible to argue with that. I can't say that any inter-divisional rival, other than Montreal (who've lost Patrick Laine to injury), got worse in the offseason.
For their part, Sabres GM Kevyn Adams didn't bring in any game-breakers this offseason. His eye was on getting solid bottom-six depth. So deep was this focus that he sent valuable prospect Matt Savoie to the Edmonton Oilers so he could acquire bottom-six center Ryan McLeod. A head-scratcher if I ever saw one.
The road map to the playoffs for Buffalo lies in the Atlantic Division and sadly they've not done enough this offseason to add enough wins even with Dahlin and Thompson increasing their production.
Buffalo will miss the playoffs again. The books agree putting the Sabres's odds of missing the postseason at -208. A 68% implied chance of going 13 years with no playoff hockey.
