McDavid is back baby. After a slow start to the year for the NHL's phenom, the McSavior put up an insane 12 points in his last four games. That's some super-human level of production.
Connor McDavid (@EdmontonOilers), Nikita Kucherov (@TBLightning) and Juuse Saros (@PredsNHL) have been named the NHL’s “Three Stars” for the week ending Nov. 16. #NHLStats: https://t.co/L2mdwkH83X pic.twitter.com/fjRgbvDf3j
— NHL Public Relations (@PR_NHL) November 27, 2023
You might want to get on the McDavid train and even the Edmonton Oilers' train now, while the odds are still favorable.
Connor McDavid Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rocket Richard | +600 |
| Hart Trophy | +600 |
Odds as of Nov. 28
McDavid's Rocket Richard Chances
Davo won the NHL goal race last year with 64 goals. Beating out the Boston Bruins' David Pastrnak who had 61 on the year.
With seven goals on the year, McDavid is well off the pace to win the league's top scorer. But we've seen his underlying numbers - in terms of expected goals - trend upwards lately.
Over his last seven games, the Oilers captain has averaged 0.51 xG per game. That's way up from the average 0.30 xG per game in his opening 11 games of the year.
I still think McDavid should be a long shot to win the league's top-scorer award, but if the xG numbers go up again it might be a good idea to spread a unit or two on McDee's Rocket odds.
Back-To-Back Hart Trophies Possible
McDavid, who has won the Hart Trophy three times already, is at +600 to win his fourth NHL MVP. The Oilers captain is currently 16th in league scoring and 11 points behind Nikita Kucherov who leads the league with 36 points. So not being at the top of the Hart odds board makes sense.
With that being said, we just saw The Chosen One score 12 points in four games. That's three points per game. An insane accomplishment by NHL standards. Last year, we saw him score nearly two points per game with 153 in 82 games.
| Year | Player | Points | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | Connor McDavid | 153 | Leon Draisaitl (128) |
| 2021-22 | Connor McDavid | 123 | Jonathan Huberdeau (115) |
| 2020-21 | Connor McDavid | 105 | Leon Draisaitl (84) |
| 2019-20 | Leon Draisaitl | 110 | Connor McDavid (97) |
| 2018-19 | Nikita Kucherov | 128 | Conor McDavid (116) |
And don't forget, the Oilers captain has led the league in scoring the last three years in a row and was runner-up the next two years. You can't count him out to win the scoring race with 62 games to play.
But we know that scoring a bucket load of points isn't going to be enough to win the Hart Trophy in the NHL. An MVP has to make the playoffs. So why do I think it's a good time to bet on him winning the Hart with Edmonton not currently in a playoff spot?
Edmonton Oilers Futures Odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| To Make The Playoffs | -160 |
| To Win Pacific Division | +2200 |
| To Win Western Conference | +1200 |
| To Win Stanley Cup | +2500 |
Odds as of Nov. 28
Look, I know that Edmonton has some work to do to get into a playoff picture, but don't write them off for dead now that Thanksgiving has passed. At -160 to make the playoffs, the books are with me. They've given Edmonton an implied 62% chance to make the postseason.
With 62 games left on the season, Edmonton is only six points out of a playoff spot. And they've also got two games in hand on the Flames who hold that final Wild Card spot. You can't tell me that with 76% of the season left, there's no way Edmonton can make the postseason.
Three of the teams Edmonton needs to leap-frog for a Wild Card spot hold a sub-0.500 points percentage. Oil Country isn't competing against the cream of the crop.
With McDavid seemingly back to his best it's absolutely possible.
