Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Odds & Picks: Total Goes OVER 6 Goals

Having won two in a row, the Toronto Maple Leafs are -130 home favorites at BET99 as they welcome the Vegas Golden Knights to Scotiabank Arena tonight. While the Leafs have won two straight it hasn't been comfortable with both wins needing OT and with the total hitting seven goals in both games, that's why I'm on the OVER tonight against Vegas with -110 odds from BET99.

See our same-game parlay where our NHL staff packaged the Leafs on the moneyline, Jack Eichel to keep up his torrid scoring pace, and Bobby McMann to keep peppering the net with shots. That parlay has +1100 odds.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Odds

Matchup Page: Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs, November 20, 7:30 pm ET

Odds as of November 20 at BET99

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Picks

OVER 6 Goals (-110) at BET99

Goals are flying in Leafs games, with the total reaching seven goals in their last two outings. That's mainly due to Toronto's offense punching above its weight scoring eight on 6.05 expected goals. Bobby McMann leads the way with three tallies in his last two games his anytime goal odds tonight are +270 at BET99.

Meanwhile, the total has gone OVER six goals three times (and pushed once) in Vegas's last five games. You can thank some wide-open hockey for that, there's an average of 8.4 expected goals in Vegas's last five games. Jack Eichel is a big contributor to the OVER scoring nine points in his last five games, BET99 is offering +155 odds on OVER 1.5 points for Eichel.

Averaging eight goals in their last three games, the total has gone OVER in all three (netting +3 units). With how wide-open Vegas games are at the moment and with the Leafs' ability to score more than they create, I have no doubt we'll get more than six goals tonight.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Same Game Parlay

Toronto is rolling with back-to-back wins and has won five of its last six games. The only loss was a 3-0 shutout at the hands of the Senators that should have been a lot closer than the final score suggest with Toronto generating 3.16 expected goals on the day. That form combined with how loose Vegas plays the Leafs should get another win.

Jack Eichel has never been more productive, in his current six-game point streak the former second-overall pick has 12 points, putting him at 28 points in 18 games an average of 1.6 per game on the season! Eichel has always been productive against the Leafs with 24 career points in 19 games so with how he's playing it would be silly to bet against him.

To score all those goals lately, Bobby McMann has turned into a volume shooter with 17 shots in his last three games, an average of 5.7 per game. Vegas is in the 70th percentile for shots allowed in high-danger areas with 125, Bobby McMann ranks in the 88th percentile for shots in high-danger areas with 15, this is a match made in heaven, OVER 2.5 shots will hit.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Player Prop

Tomas Hertl O2.5 SOG (+140) at BET99

Per Outlier, Tomas Hertl has gone UNDER 2.5 shots in 12 of his last 15 road games but bucked that trend in his last two road games, I'm betting that small trend keeps up.

I'm feeling comfortable betting against Hertl's SOG trend not only because he's beaten it in his last two road games with eight shots, but also because Toronto has allowed a lot of shots at home lately. Toronto averages 28.6 shots per home game this year, against Ottawa they allowed 41, and against Edmonton, they allowed 30, both are comfortably over their season average, combine that with Hertl's trend-breaking though admittedly small streak, and I'll side with the OVER.

Golden Knights vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends