Lightning vs Maple Leafs Picks and Odds Tonight: Tampa Is A Lock Against The Spread

Superstars descend upon Scotiabank Arena as Auston Matthews's Toronto Maple Leafs welcome Nikita Kucherov and the Tampa Bay Lightning in Monday night's only NHL matchup. Despite a recent 4-1 home loss to the Rangers, BET99 is still confident Toronto will win making them -140 home favorites.

Both teams are equally matched with elite offensive talent, Tampa averages four goals a game while Toronto averages three goals per game. I believe the score of this Lightning vs Maple Leafs game will be close, so I like BET99's -190 odds for the Lightning against the spread.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Odds Tonight

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Toronto Maple Leafs, October 21, 7:30 pm ET

Odds as of October 21 at BET99

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Picks Tonight

Lightning +1.5 (-190)

Since 2018, the Leafs are 1-8 against the spread when they play the Lightning at home. The last time Toronto covered the spread at home against Tampa was December 20, 2022, nearly two years ago.

With elite offensive talent on both sides, it's easy to see why Leafs-Lightning games are so tightly contested. For Toronto, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, and William Nylander are averaging 1.50, 1.44, and 1.20 points per game against Tampa since 21-22, respectively. At BET99 you can combine OVER 0.5 points for Mitch Marner and William Nylander for -110 odds on a same-game parlay.

Not to be outdone, Kucherov and Guentzel are averaging 1.89 and 0.80 points per game against the Leafs. Tampa can also rely on Andrei Vasilevskiy to slow down the Leafs' offense. Vasy holds an outstanding 0.921SV%, averaging 32 saves, in eight games against the Leafs since 21-22.

Tampa is an experienced squad that knows how to play a strong road game, which is why they're not only 8-1 vs the spread against Toronto but they've also covered the +1.5 spread on the road eight times in their last nine games (89%). 

Lightning vs Leafs Player Prop Tonight

Max Domi UNDER 1.5 Shots (+100)

Max Domi doesn't get a lot of pucks on the net. So far this season, he's put three shots on the net in five games. A pathetic average of 0.6 shots per game. 

I know that he's providing assists with five in four games, but he's the distributor on his line while players like Nylander and Bobby McMann do all the shooting. Nylander has 16 shots in his last five games while McMann is at 10 in four games. BET99 is offering -190 odds on OVER 1.5 shots for Bobby McMann tonight. 

I see no reason to suggest Domi explodes for shots tonight.

Lightning vs Leafs Betting Trends Tonight