The regular season hasn't mattered to the Toronto Maple Leafs for a long time. They've got so much skill that it's a foregone conclusion that they'll make the playoffs. Sadly it's also a foregone conclusion that the Leafs will wilt like...well...leaves in the fall.
I've looked at the Leafs' last few playoffs and pulled some betting trends you'll want to have for this year's run. Warning, it's not pretty (if you're a Leafs fan).
Worst NHL Playoff Records
| Team | Record | Win Rate | Betting Profit ($100 Unit) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Wild | 25-48 | 34% | -$2,344 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 15-26 | 37% | -$397 |
| Calgary Flames | 21-34 | 38% | -$1,602 |
| Buffalo Sabres | 5-8 | 39% | -$300 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 17-27 | 39% | -$1,050 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs | 24-33 | 42% | -$2,147 |
Results as of April 19, 2024
Contrary to popular belief, the Leafs aren’t the worst NHL playoff team in recent memory. They’re not even one of the three worst teams in Canada! Sorry to all of you Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets fans.
But they're kind of one of the worst with the sixth-worst overall record.
Winning a single playoff series in the post-lockout NHL, the Leafs own a 42% win rate in postseason games. Had you bet $100 on every Leafs playoff game since 2008 you'd be down $2,147. But, for all you haters out there, you'd be up $1,564 if you'd done the opposite and faded Toronto.
Boston is favored to win their series against the Leafs at -125. That's 80$ of profit on a $100 bet against Toronto.
Toronto’s Woes on Home Ice
If you're looking for another way to fade the Leafs, bet against them on home ice in the playoffs. Since 2008, the Leafs hold an 11-18SU record (38%) at Scotiabank Arena. That's just really bad. Home ice is supposed to be an advantage!
Focus on the Leaf's last three playoff appearances and they're 5-12SU (29%) at home. Did you hear that? That was the entire 416 having anxiety-driven sickness all at the same time.
But hey maybe this year will be different!
Not if you look at their last four home games to end the 2023-24 season.
| Opponent & Date | Result |
|---|---|
| vs. Devils (Apr. 11) | 6-5 L |
| vs. Red Wings (Apr. 13) | 5-4 L |
| vs. Panthers (Apr. 16) | 5-2 L |
| vs. Lightning (Apr. 17) | 6-4 L |
Totally UNDER-whelming
Since 2008, the Buds are 33-23-1 (58%) against the UNDER in the playoffs. They might not be winning a lot but the scores are low!
I really tried to make that sound like a good thing but we all know it's not. The UNDERs are hitting because Toronto isn't scoring. They've hit the UNDER in their last seven playoff games because Sergei Bobrovsky built himself a nice brick home in the crease.
If the Leafs shooters hit the back of the net like we know they can the OVERs likely hit.
| Top Scores Since 2008 | Regular Season S% | Playoff S% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 16.2% | 10.2% | -6% |
| William Nylander | 12.4% | 11.4% | -1% |
| Mitch Marner | 13.0% | 7.5% | -5.5% |
| John Tavares | 12.8% | 10.7% | -2.1% |
| Phil Kessel | 10.9% | 13.8% | +2.9% |
Looks like Phil Kessel gets the last (awkward) laugh. He's the only player in the top five for regular-season goals who saw his shooting percentage increase in the postseason. Matthews and Marner clearly fall off with 6 and 5.5% drops, respectively.
I really hope you guys are as traumatized by Phil Kessel's laugh as I am. pic.twitter.com/Cgm8ZF6l3u
— Cristiano Simonetta (@CMS_74_) May 19, 2016
How To Bet On The NHL Playoffs
You can bet on individual games, but one of the best ways to bet on the Stanley Cup Playoffs is with a futures bet. At your sportsbook of choice, you’ll see Stanley Cup odds listed like this:
- Carolina Hurricanes +650
- Edmonton Oilers +700
- Toronto Maple Leafs +1400
- New York Islanders +5000
If you believe that it’s finally Toronto’s year, you can lay down $10 on the Leafs to win the Cup. If they do win it all, you’d see a payout of $150 at the above odds – your original $10 is returned along with your winnings of $140.
