Maple Leafs vs Devils Odds & Picks Tonight: Total Goes UNDER 6.5 Goals

The Toronto Maple Leafs are +120 road dogs tonight in New Jersey as the Devils sit as -140 favorites. New Jersey plays their first home game of the season after opening with two wins over the Buffalo Sabres in Europe. Meanwhile, the Leafs want to atone for last night's shutout loss, something that didn't happen to them once in 2023.

In three meetings last year with New Jersey, the Leafs held a 1-2 SU record and the OVER hit in all three contests with an average of nine goals per game. But, with difference makers in the crease on both sides tonight, I'm going against that trend to take the UNDER.

Maple Leafs vs Devils Odds

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils, Oct. 10, 7:00 pm ET

Odds as of October 10 at 11:40am

Maple Leafs vs Devils Picks Tonight

UNDER 6.5 Goals (+100)

As I said, all three meetings between the Leafs and Devils last year exceeded 6.5 goals. Including last season, OVER 6.5 goals is 4-2 (67%). But that's with shaky goaltending. Jacob Markstrom is expected to get the nod for New Jersey while Anthony Stolarz could start for Toronto.

We all know the Devils struggled in net last year, it's why they went out and got Jacob Markstrom. And the veteran goalie has been lights-out with a 0.968SV% and 1.01GAA. I know it's only been one game, but we can't forget that Markstrom was still a great goalie in Calgary. Even in that awful 23-24 season where he averaged 0.905SV% and 2.78GAA, he had the ninth-highest goals saved above expected in the league at +13.7.

At the time of writing, we still aren't sure who the Leafs starter will be. Stolarz played last night in Montreal so Craig Berube may go to 2022 fourth-round pick Dennis Hildeby.

Craig Berube on if he’s consider running it back with Stolarz on back to back nights.

“It’s something we’ve got to discuss here”.

— David Alter (@dalter) October 10, 2024

Either is a good option. Stolarz was fantastic in net last night stopping 26 of the 27 shots he faced. Proving that his 0.925SV% and 2.03GAA as a backup in Florida last year was no fluke. Meanwhile, Hildeby has shown incredible promise with a 0.913SV% and 2.41GAA in 41 AHL games last year for the Toronto Marlies.

All that to say, the Leafs and Devils finally have reliable goalkeeping options. So, I'm going against the OVER trend set last year and say the score falls below 6.5 goals because of upgrades between the pipes.

Maple Leafs vs Devils Prop Bet: Timo Meier UNDER 3.5 Shots (-120)

You might look at Meier's stat sheet this year and think with 10 shots in two games he's a shoo-in to exceed 3.5 shots. But I'm telling you to stop and think. Five shots per game is not sustainable. 

Over his career, Meier has averaged only 3.25 shots per game. That average follows him if you isolate for games against the Leafs at 3.23 shots per game. 

Thanks to our friends at Outlier, we know that Meier has gone below 3.5 shots in 15 of his last 19 home games (79%)! Take the UNDER on his shot prop tonight.

Maple Leafs vs Devils Betting Trends