Matthews vs Crosby & Bedard vs McDavid: NHL Odds and Picks Tonight October 12

We're going to focus on two key matchups this Saturday in the NHL. First Auston Matthews's Toronto Maple Leafs welcome Sidney Crosby and the Pittsburgh Penguins to Scotiabank Arena at 7 pm ET, where I believe you can cash on the total going OVER 6.5 goals at -114 at BET99.

The later puck drop sees Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers battle Connor Bedard and the Chicago Blackhawks. Edmonton should win as massive -335 favorites, but the value lies in their -132 odds at BET99 to cover the puckline.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Odds

Pittsburgh Penguins vs Toronto Maple Leafs, Oct. 12, 7:00 pm ET

Odds as of October 11

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Picks

OVER 6.5 Goals (-114) at BET99

I like the OVER between the Leafs and Penguins because we know both teams can score and one in particular can't defend at all.

The Maple Leafs might have been shut out in their season opener, but they were expected to score six goals with a 6.09 xG that night. They rebounded in their next game by scoring four goals on 22 shots in a 4-2 win against New Jersey. 

Scoring isn't anything new for Toronto, last year they had the second-highest goal count in the league with 298 goals. That kind of elite scoring helped the Leafs hit OVER 6.5 goals 57% making bettors 5.3 units of profit.

A word of warning when looking at Matthews's player props for this game. While the total goes OVER 6.5 goals, I'd caution you into assuming Matthews will take part in that scoring. AM34's career shooting percentage versus the Pens is 10.5%, his fourth-lowest shooting percentage against an NHL team. In his eight last games against Pittsburgh Matthews only has three goals or 0.375 per game. Per Outlier, he's also failed to score in five straight.

Pittsburgh was a good offensive team last season with 3.09 goals per game. They rebounded from a shutout in their season opener to score six against Detroit. So scoring isn't an issue for them, specifically when you have Sidney Crosby.

Crosby led the Penguins in scoring last year with 94 points. He's at the top of the Penguins' production table once against with two assists in two games and an average of six shots on net. In his career versus the Leafs, Sid has 68 points and 162 shots on net in 53 games for an average of 1.25 points and 3.06 shots per game.

But the key to taking the OVER isn't just that the Leafs and Pens can score, it's that Pittsburgh can't defend. They've allowed 4.5 goals per game to open this season, an average that's up from the final month of 23-24 when they allowed 3.7 goals per game. 

With Toronto's elite offense, the Pens' capable offense and their bad defense the total will go OVER 6.5 goals.

Penguins vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends

Blackhawks vs Oilers Odds

Chicago Blackhawks vs Edmonton Oilers, Oct. 12, 10:00 pm ET

Odds as of October 11

Blackhawks vs Oilers Picks

Oilers -1.5 (-132) at BET99

The Oilers are massive favorites with -335 odds on the moneyline. That's only $3 of profit on a $10 bet, so betting them straight-up holds no value. However, taking the Oilers to cover the -1.5 puckline at -132 is certainly good value because last year the Oilers went 5-1 on the puckline as big home favorites. Of the five times Edmonton coved, twice came when they hosted Chicago where Edmonton was -630 and -500 on the moneyline.

Connor McDavid had a big hand in his team covering both games by scoring two goals and three assists. He also averaged five shots per game so you can get McDavid's points prop at O1.5 points (-130) and his shot prop at O3.5 (+100) at BET99.

Edmonton can easily score enough to cover the line thanks to an elite offensive unit that averaged of 3.56 goals per game last year. The Oilers cover the spread not only because they can score a ton but because Chicago can't score. The Hawks had the league's worst offense at 178 goals in 23-24 with only two players scoring above 20 goals (Connor Bedard and Jason Dickinson scored 22).

Connor Bedard is the only shining light in the Hawks' lineup. His teammates are constantly looking to feed him the puck. He had five shots on the net in his season opener and eight shot attempts. Unless his shot prop is set at 4.5 shots, bet the OVER on the Hawks' budding superstar's shots in this game.

With Edmonton's elite offense and Chicago's poor scoring ability, the Oilers will cover the -1.5 spread and cash that -132 bet for $7.58 on a $10 bet. Much better value.

Blackhawks vs Oilers Betting Trends