Oilers vs Maple Leafs Odds & Picks: Leafs Win As Surprising Home Dogs

Connor McDavid returns home to Toronto as his Edmonton Oilers face the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena tonight. BET99 has Toronto as +115 home dogs in this contest while the Oilers who've won three straight games are -135 road favorites. 

With Edmonton sporting a 3-8SU record in its last 11 games against the Leafs and Toronto winning four of its last five home games, I'm placing my money on the +115 Leafs tonight. 

Our Odds Shark NHL staff cooked up a +1200 same-game parlay for this Oilers vs Maple Leafs duel. See below why we packaged the Leafs' moneyline, McDavid'd points prop, and Nylander's shot prop for tonight's parlay.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Odds

Edmonton Oilers vs Toronto Maple Leafs, November 16, 7:00 pm ET

Odds as of November 16 at BET99

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Picks

Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+115) at BET99

Toronto doesn't deserve to be home dogs in this matchup, it has won four of its last five games (80%) and seven of its last 10 home games (70%), and most of that was done without the services of Auston Matthews, who will be out again tonight. Former captain John Tavares has stepped up to fill Matthews's goal-scoring shoes popping in four twine-ticklers in five games including two game-winners, his anytime goal odds are +180 at BET99.

Despite Edmonton entering this contest on a three-game winning streak two of those wins came in overtime with Edmonton giving up a lead in both games. That's not what I'd call a convincing win streak. For all of Edmonton's qualities, like holding the second-best 5on5 expected goals rate in the league, it struggles to kill off games thanks to an abysmal 6.68% shooting percentage (fifth lowest in the NHL) something that will be a problem against a Toronto side that's 4-1SU in their last five home games where they've won by an average of three goals.

The last time Toronto was a home dog against Edmonton it won 6-3 so I'll gladly take the Leafs as +115 home dogs tonight.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Same Game Parlay

The Odds Shark staff doesn't trust the Oilers' recent three-game winning streak and their less-than-stellar shooting numbers so we took the Leafs to win on the moneyline, not to mention that Toronto has won its last three games on home ice against the Oilers.

McDavid has nine points in his last three games, but just because the phenom finally exceeded 1,000 points in his career doesn't mean he'll stop scoring. McDavid has averaged 2.25 points in his last four games when playing in front of his friends and family in Toronto so we say he keeps that up by scoring at least two points in his homecoming after being the fourth-fastest player to hit 1,000 points.

HISTORY FOR McDAVID 🚨

The fourth fastest player to reach 1000 points (659 GP). pic.twitter.com/DLHOOx5AwZ

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) November 15, 2024

William Nylander has led the Leafs in shots with 19 shots in his last five games (3.8 per game) since Matthews was sidelined with an injury. Playing into Nylander's shooting mentality is the Oilers' inability to shut down shots from righties like Wily, with the eighth-most shots allowed in the league from the right side (6.00 per game). For these reasons, we believe Nylander will hit his shot prop tonight.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Player Prop

Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal (+150) at BET99

The German forward has found recent success against the Leafs scoring in four of his last five games vs. Toronto so I'm taking Draisaitl to keep that up by scoring tonight.

While most of the Oilers' shooters have wasted their shots, that isn't the case with Draisaitl scoring on 27% of his shots, and he's been using that hot stick to devastating effect lately entering this contest with three goals in his last three games. Leon is hot right now and has success against the Buds so he's a good anytime goal bet tonight.

Oilers vs Maple Leafs Betting Trends