A quarter of the 2024-25 NHL season has passed and there's still a lot of jockeying for Stanley Cup playoff positions, specifically in the East where four points separate the last-place team and a Wild Card spot.
In the West, is it possible that the Colorado Avalanche miss the playoffs despite an attempt to fix poor goaltending? In the East, the Rangers are my favorite play to miss the playoffs.
See the NHL Stanley Cup playoff odds to find where we can get value on teams to make or miss the postseason.
2024-25 NHL Playoff Odds: Eastern Conference
| Team | Make Playoffs: Yes | Make Playoffs: No | Playoff Probability % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Bruins* | -155 | +125 | 36% |
| Buffalo Sabres | +950 | -2000 | 3% |
| Carolina Hurricanes* | -5000 | +1350 | 97% |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | +1350 | -5000 | 24% |
| Detroit Red Wings | +625 | -1000 | 13% |
| Florida Panthers* | -3500 | +1350 | 94% |
| Montreal Canadiens | +1900 | -100000 | 4% |
| New Jersey Devils* | -3500 | +1200 | 97% |
| New York Islanders | +335 | -450 | 12% |
| New York Rangers | -120 | +100 | 30% |
| Ottawa Senators* | -145 | +115 | 66% |
| Philadelphia Flyers | +550 | -900 | 14% |
| Pittsburgh Penguins | +425 | -600 | 19% |
| Tampa Bay Lightning* | -1300 | +725 | 98% |
| Toronto Maple Leafs* | -3300 | +1150 | 95% |
| Washington Capitals* | -3500 | +1150 | 99% |
Odds as of December 20 at BET 99. Teams with * are currently in a playoff spot.
Playoff probability from Hockey-Reference
Best Bet To Make NHL Playoffs (East): Ottawa Senators, -145
Hallelujah, Linus Ullmark can stop a puck, the former Vezina winner has been on fire lately with a 0.964 save percentage and 0.99 goals against average over his last seven. It's no coincidence that Ottawa has gone on to win those seven games and find themselves in a playoff position by a single point but with two games in hand.
A shot-stopper was all Ottawa was missing last year, they finished with a respectful 3.05 goals per game, but goalies Korpisalo, Forsnerg, and Sogaard combined to allow 33.7 goals above expected, dooming the Sens to a seventh-straight year without playoff hockey.
With Ullmark being the star Ottawa thought he was when they traded for him and getting a slightly improved 3.09 goals per game (13th in the NHL), Ottawa has all it needs to make the playoffs in a weak Eastern Conference.
Best Bet To Miss NHL Playoffs (East): New York Rangers, +100
The Rangers went from +220 to miss the playoffs a few weeks ago to now holding +100 odds, hopefully, you bet on them when I told you too on the 6th.
A messy picture is getting messier in New York with punitive trades, a rumored mutinous players-only meeting, and results that are only getting worse including a 2-0 shutout at the hands of the pathetic Nashville Predators.
The Rangers are broken and I doubt they get back up in time to pile up enough points to make the playoffs.
2024-25 NHL Playoff Odds: Western Conference
| Team | Make Playoffs: Yes | Make Playoffs: No | Playoff Probability % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anaheim Ducks | +1900 | -100000 | 8% |
| Calgary Flames | +335 | -450 | 31% |
| Colorado Avalanche* | -400 | +300 | 57% |
| Dallas Stars* | -1500 | +790 | 86% |
| Edmonton Oilers* | -2500 | +1050 | 85% |
| Los Angeles Kings* | -750 | +500 | 91% |
| Minnesota Wild* | -1400 | +950 | 95% |
| Nahsville Predators | +900 | -2000 | 1% |
| Seattle Kraken | +850 | -1600 | 13% |
| St. Louis Blues | +850 | -1600 | 17% |
| Utah Hockey Club | +125 | -155 | 59% |
| Vancouver Canucks* | -400 | +300 | 58% |
| Vegas Golden Knights* | -5000 | +1350 | 98% |
| Winnipeg Jets* | -2000 | +1050 | 99% |
Odds as of December 6 at BET99. Teams with * are currently in a playoff spot.
Playoff probability from Hockey-Reference
Best Bet To Make NHL Playoffs (West): Utah Hockey Club, +125
Utah wants to make their first year in the new city a success by making the playoffs and going 7-1-2 in the 10 games leading up to writing, the UHC are only three points back of a Wild Card spot with three games in hand. They're so close!
Goalie Karel Vejmelka has been key with a 0.911 save percentage and 2.33 goals against average in his last five starts, while forwards Dylan Guenther, Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz have all scored at or above a point per game in Utah's last 10.
And look Utah has the cap space and assets to make a big move at the trade deadline to acquire another key piece. And we also have to remember that Jon Marino, a major defensive acquisition from the offseason, is getting closer-and-closer to joining his teammates.
It would not surprise me to see Utah make the postseason in year one.
Best Bet To Miss NHL Playoffs (West): Colorado Avalanche, +300
The Avs made two desperation trades to address their failing goalie core acquiring Scott Wedgewood and MacKenzie Blackwood and while both are doing great with save percentages above 0.930 and a goals-against-average float around 2.00, I don't believe that will last.
We're talking about two goalies with poor career numbers, Wedgewood holds a 2.97 and 0.906 in 140 career games while Blackwood is a 3.06 and 0.905 goalie in 218 career games. We know who these goalies are at this level, their 'quality' will come out soon don't you worry.
At the time of writing, the Avs's hold on the final Wild Card is tenuous at best with only a single point separating them from Calgary (who has a game in hand) and three points on Utah (who has that previously mentioned three games in hand). With a long list of injuries and poor goalie play Colorado could easily slip out of a playoff spot.
