Ovie is fading, Backstrom is all but retired, Kuznetsov was traded, and TJ Oshie is a shadow of what he once was and yet, the Washington Capitals have made the playoffs.
Their reward? A date with the Presidents' Trophy-winning New York Rangers in round one. A matchup that oddsmakers believe will end quickly.
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Rangers vs Capitals playoff series odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| New York Rangers | -1050 |
| Washington Capitals | +660 |
Odds as of April 23
Rangers Lead Series 1-0
This series is not supposed to be close. Books are giving the Rangers an implied odd of 82% to win the series while the Capitals hold a measly 23% chance to win the series. And as you'll see in a second, those same books think this series will be over quickly.
| Series Score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rangers 4-1 | +250 |
| Rangers 4-2 | +350 |
| Rangers 4-0 | +400 |
| Rangers 4-3 | +450 |
| Capitals 4-3 | +1000 |
| Capitals 4-2 | +1100 |
| Capitals 4-1 | +2000 |
| Capitals 4-0 | +4000 |
Odds as of April 21
The Rangers sweeping the Caps is more likely than Washington pushing this series to seven games. This first-round series should be over seemingly before it starts.
A saving grace for the Capitals is their relative discipline. Washington has the second-lowest penalty taken (per 60) rate in the league over the last month at 2.22. Meaning they should do a good job of limiting that red-hot Rangers power play that's 32.4% efficiency since March 17.
If they can continue that disciplined run, they'll have a chance to maybe win a game or two. But certainly not the series.
Rangers vs Capitals betting results
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 14, 2024 | Rangers (-250) | Capitals (+210) | 2-1 Rangers | 6.0 (U) |
| January 13, 2024 | Capitals (+135) | Rangers (-160) | 3-2 Captials | 6.0 (U) |
| December 27, 2023 | Rangers (-220) | Capitals (+180) | 5-1 Rangers | 5.5 (O) |
| December 9, 2023 | Capitals (+165) | Rangers (-190) | 4-0 Capitals | 6.0 (U) |
The season series was split, though the UNDER did hit three out of four times. But look at that schedule congestion! Two division rivals did not face each other in the final three months of the regular season. Why? With that type of gap, these two teams are effectively totally different.
New York took off in the second half of the season, going from 0.667 points percentage to 0.725. They also turned a +0.43 goals per game differential to +0.85.
Washington went in a different direction in the second half. The Caps held a 0.561 points percentage in the first half and saw that drop to 0.549 in the second half. That's thanks to a defense that got worse allowing an extra 0.25 goals per game.
Rangers vs Capitals - Notable Player Performances
Alexis Lafreniere: I bet you never would have imagined seeing Lafreniere's name here. But the former first-overall pick has been excellent in the goal-scoring department vs. Washington. Laf has five goals against them since 21-22, the most for any Ranger.
Alex Ovechkin: There is no player in Capitals franchise history with more playoff goals (13) and points (23) against the Rangers.
Though fair warning, Ovie hasn't scored against New York since 2021-22. Lately, he's been real cold against the Blue Shirts
Igor Shesterkin: Shesterkin has been outstanding against the Caps this year with a 2-1-0 record while averaging a 2.00GAA and 0.926SV%. We've seen the Russian goalie be a big difference-maker in the playoffs for the Rangers before. In 28 playoff games, he's only posted a sub-0.900SV% three times.
Rangers vs Capitals playoff series expert pick: Rangers (-450), Rangers 4-1 (+250)
I have no doubt that the Rangers win this series. They've got better goal-scoring, better goalkeeping, and a much better special team.
And while I know I said Ovie is a notable player for Washington I do worry that he's slowing down and will be easily marked out by New York. Look, Ovie has been money vs New York in the post-season, but he hasn't faced them since 2015. The Caps captain only has one goal in his last seven playoff games.
If New York takes him out of the game, they could very well take out Washington's offensive production.
Caps might win a game, but that's it.
Rangers vs Capitals betting results last 10 meetings
| Date | Home Team ML | Away Team ML | Final Score | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 14, 2024 | Rangers (-250) | Capitals (+210) | 2-1 Rangers | 6.0 (U) |
| January 13, 2024 | Capitals (+135) | Rangers (-160) | 3-2 Capitals | 6.0 (U) |
| December 27, 2023 | Rangers (-220) | Capitals (+180 | 5-1 Rangers | 5.5 (O) |
| December 9, 2023 | Capitals (+165) | Rangers (-190) | 4-0 Capitals | 6.0 (U) |
| April 2, 2023 | Capitals (+115) | Rangers (-135) | 5-2 Rangers | 6.0 (O) |
| March 14, 2023 | Rangers (-185) | Capitals (+165) | 5-3 Rangers | 6.0 (O) |
| February 25, 2023 | Capitals (+125) | Rangers (-145) | 6-3 Capitals | 6.0 (O) |
| December 27, 2022 | Rangers (-160) | Capitals (+135) | 4-0 Capitals | 6.0 (U) |
| April 29, 2022 | Rangers (-120) | Capitals (+100) | 3-2 Rangers | 6.0 (U) |
| February 24, 2022 | Rangers (-120) | Capitals (+100) | 4-1 Rangers | 6.0 (U) |
The home team owns this matchup with an 8-2SU record. Advantage to those Rangers then, eh? Again, the evidence is mounting that this series will be won by New York and will be over rather quickly.
