The fight is back on, and the Lopes vs Ortega odds add a new twist to this main-card brawl at UFC 306 on September 14.
Diego Lopes is a -175 favorite over Brian Ortega (+150 underdog) in their upcoming matchup at The Sphere. This fight was of course booked for UFC 303, but Ortega fell ill and the bout was scrapped at the last minute.
Here's our full Lopes vs Ortega preview, featuring odds and best bets.
Lopes vs Ortega Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Diego Lopes | -175 |
| Brian Ortega | +150 |
Odds as of September 13 via BetMGM
Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Lopes at -175 odds pays out $157.14. The same $100 on Ortega nets $250.
Betting Preview: How Lopes Wins
Lopes is dynamite. The young Brazilian burst onto the scene with his cool hair and flying BJJ skills, but he's established a reputation as a full-fledged martial artist. I'm not yet ready to call Lopes a future champion, but a win over Ortega would certainly get him in the title picture.
Lopes is an aggressive grappler, capable of securing submissions or playing defense to an opponent's advances. And now we know Lopes has iron hands after his KO victory vs Sodiq Yusuff at UFC 300.
Ortega is pretty durable but not an elite defender. He can take a punch, but he's hard to put away. The American also sets decent BJJ traps when opponents don't expect it, so Lopes must be appropriately cautious.
In the end, I'm very comfortable betting Lopes straight up at -175 odds. It's too risky to wager on a finish in a three-round fight, especially after he couldn't put away Dan Ige at UFC 303.
Betting Preview: How Ortega Wins
Ortega's victory over Yair Rodriguez is a good example of how he can get it done vs a hungry dude like Lopes. Brian took a mighty beating from the Mexican early in that last fight, suffering multiple knockdowns before locking in a third-round triangle choke.
I'm not sure if Ortega can compare to Lopes' physical skills (speed, power, etc.), but he's crafty, and that's always been his best ability. Oddly enough, a knockdown and position on his back might not even be the worst thing in the world. Think back to his infamous near-guillotine vs Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 266 in 2021.
Don't be dissuaded if Ortega gets cranked in Round 1. He has a chance until the final horn. Bet him as a SU underdog, but you can also throw a dart that he subs Lopes.
Lopes vs Ortega Picks
I'll be on Lopes to win this fight at -175 odds. Beyond that, it gets tricky. The OVER 1.5 rounds is bound to be very chalky, so perhaps it can be parlayed with Lopes ML.
Sometimes there are lots of plays in a fight; other times, there is nothing to bet. I'm sticking to Lopes ML and moving on.
