UFC 313 Parlay Picks: Lovely UNDERs In Las Vegas

I've got UFC 313 with this big event just days away. 

For the most part, we've got very close odds on the main card. I'm picking Alex Pereira to retain his title at UFC 313 vs Magomed Ankalaev, and I'm also betting on Justin Gaethje as an underdog in the co-main vs Rafael Fiziev.

The prelims feature some lopsided fights, so that's where I'll open up the bankroll to some more creative bets for UFC 313 parlays on March 8 in Las Vegas.

UFC 313: A Violence Parlay (+431)

The Brazilian Leal brings an impressive resume of power and early stoppages to the UFC. The 30-year-old lost his UFC debut to Rinat Fakhretdinov (a robbery, some argue) but boasted KOs UNDER 1.5 rounds in four of his final five pre-UFC fights. Leal now fights Morono, who is arguably the least inspiring UFC fighter on the roster. Leal is a -700 favorite, so we'll narrow things down to -120 with a bet on him to win by KO. His power plays big, so this will be worth the risk.

Bruno Ferreira vs Armen Petrosyan promises to be a fire fight. I haven't settled on who I like to win this fight, so the UNDER 2.5 rounds does just fine for now. I've lost money betting on "The Hulk" Ferreira (3-2 UFC record, all stoppages), but he enters the cage ready for ruckus, which I love. Petrosyan makes for a good dance partner with 15 minutes to play.

Lastly, I'm taking the UNDER 2.5 rounds in Mauricio Ruffy vs Bobby Green. While Ruffy is a -450 favorite (and I like him to win by KO), the UNDER 2.5 format leaves room for a Green Miracle. Plus, let's not get too greedy with north of +400 value already. 

UFC 313: Lights Out Lightweights (+509)

"The Tarantula" Turner meets Ignacio Bahamondes, a fellow slender lightweight with his own jar of collected souls. Bahomondes is a lot like Turner, just with more creative kicks, which some folks suggest will make the difference in this razor-thin matchup. "La Jaula" knocked out Manuel Torres in his last bout with a smooth step-back overhand, though Torres was gassed and left his chin very exposed. 

For disclosure: I'm a heavy Turner fan and nearly always pick him as an underdog. He fought very well in a split-decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot in 2023 and had a win in the bag vs Renato Moicano at UFC 300 before his mental lapse led to a KO loss. Turner has brutally powerful strikes (more pop than Bahamondes, even), and his long arms help him secure chokes on the mat. If he doesn't sit the Chilean down with strikes, he'll get him by submission. 

Many MMA betting enthusiasts are fading Gaethje this week, but I'm not buying it. "The Highlight" spent weeks in fight camp prepping for a five-round war vs Dan Hooker under the tutelage of coach Trevor Wittman. The Max Holloway KO is in the rearview mirror, and Gaethje gets a rematch against Fiziev, who is just 18 months removed from an ACL tear and taking this fight on short notice.

I understand the stylistic hesitations — Fiziev is quick and clean — but I'm not ready to declare Justin's title aspirations over just yet.

UFC 313 Parlay: Poatan Punchline (+175)

This is a "Poatan" KO with a tiny odds boost from Ruffy, who should have no trouble dispatching Green to start the main card.

Listen, Pereira's strengths play very well into Ankalaev's weaknesses. Poatan has the best calf kicks in the UFC, and Ankalaev is extremely vulnerable to lower-leg attacks. Ankalaev prefers to counterstrike instead of throwing first, meaning the Brazilian will get the first crack in those exchanges (I can see that left hook coming already). Ankalaev's takedowns are the X-factor in this fight and would easily tilt the fight in the Russian's favor. Still, at +120, Poatan by KO is a risk worth taking because I predict Ankalaev will harvest more time than damage from dominant wrestling positions.