Adesanya vs Du Plessis Odds & Picks: A Showdown Of African Stars

UFC 305 is almost here, and the Israel Adesanya vs Dricus Du Plessis odds tell us we're in store for a close fight. Adesanya is the -125 favorite, while the champ Du Plessis is a +100 underdog to retain his middleweight title in Perth, Australia on August 17. 

Du Plessis and Adesanya detest one another, and their animosity dates back quite some time (more on that later). Let's dive right into our Adesanya vs Du Plessis odds, predictions, and betting preview.

Adesanya vs Du Plessis Odds

Odds as of August 16

Using our odds calculator, we can determine Adesanya's -125 odds suggest a 55.16% chance of winning, and a $100 bet pays out $171.94. The champ Du Plessis' +100 underdog status gives him a 50% chance of winning, with a $100 bet paying out $200.

Adesanya vs Du Plessis Props

Adesanya vs Du Plessis Betting Preview: Who wins this Middleweight title fight?

The Adesanya vs Du Plessis odds might suggest Izzy will crank the burly South African. But is it that simple?

How Adesanya Wins

In my mind, I've likened Du Plessis' physical style to two of Adesanya's previous opponents: Yoel Romero and Paulo Costa. These guys were both human terminators with a brutish style and, in Romero's case, solid wrestling.

The Yoel fight was comedically dull, but Adesanya will be best against DDP if he slows things to a crawl. By turning this bout into a rhythmic kickboxing match, "The Last Stylebender" can read Du Plessis, find those chinks in the armor and lash out with his patented snapping strikes.

Du Plessis' cardio looked excellent vs Whittaker and Seann Strickland, and the South African will hold a strong wrestling advantage. These are all factors Izzy must contend with at UFC 305.

How Du Plessis Wins

Dricus lands thudding jabs and straights — he's like a battering ram with those punches. Often he'll get his combos started with a jab and then blitz as his opponent covers up, shooting his foes back toward the cage as he continues the barrage.

Punches in bunches will help him defeat Izzy, but that initial entry will be massive. Think back to the Alex Pereira knockout at UFC 281, where "Poatan" started his KO onslaught with a jab and short uppercut.

DDP can outwrestle Adesanya, too, but he won't find much space unless he enters range and does damage with his strikes. He never really threatened a knockout vs Strickland and wound up eating a lot of damage in return, so those entries will be massive.

Why Do Adesanya and Du Plessis Have Beef?

The gripe began in 2020 after Du Plessis, a South African, claimed he wanted to become the first champ who is "African born, African raised."

The up-and-coming fighter explained that while some fighters represent Africa — both Kamaru Usman and Adesanya fight under the Nigerian flag — they don't reside, wake up and train in Africa. Du Plessis' point was that Usman and Adesanya's belts, as far as he knew, went to New Zealand (Adesanya) and America (Usman).

ADESANYA ENTERS THE OCTAGON WITH DU PLESSIS #UFC290 pic.twitter.com/WBBsXOEuyE

— UFC (@ufc) July 9, 2023

This instantly bothered Adesanya, who called out Du Plessis after he beat Alex Pereira at UFC 287. Given the racial and colonial undertones of the situation, especially in a South African context, the Adesanya-Du Plesis beef became very divisive.

Adesanya vs Du Plessis Betting Pick

In my mind, I see this vision of Adesanya clubbing Dricus with a head kick and hopping on him for a finish. DDP has cement hands, so a KO the other way is always on the table, but Adesanya is just more creative.

The middleweight champ is awkward on offense, and he fights smart on defense, too. But Adesanya might just show Du Plessis there are levels to the game. Adesanya is a UFC legend for a reason.

Pick: Adesanya (-125); UNDER 3.5 Rounds (+100)