UFC 316 has its main event.
UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili will defend his belt in a rematch against Sean O'Malley on June 7 in New Jersey. Merab is a -275 favorite, with O'Malley coming back as a +235 underdog in their UFC 316 rematch.
These Merab vs O'Malley odds are a far cry from the chalk status "Suga" Sean enjoyed at UFC 306 at the Sphere in September. Merab dominated with control time in that fight, though O'Malley rallied late to sting Merab with a shot to the body.
Sean O'Malley vs Merab Dvalishvili Betting Odds: UFC 316
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sean O'Malley | +225 |
| Merab Dvalishvili | -275 |
Odds as of April 2
How To Bet O'Malley
I don't have any insight into O'Malley's training camps post UFC 306, but he'll need to attack this UFC 316 rematch with more ferocity and urgency. The slender striker looked stuck in glue at The Sphere, though Merab's crazy movement and pressure do that to many fighters. Stuffing takedowns will help, though O'Malley rejected nine of Merab's 15 attempts in their first fight and still couldn't get much down.
While we know Merab has a bit of a creaky chin, O'Malley must do more with the in-between time in this fight. In their first fight, he spent too long sizing up Merab and managing Octagon angles that he never got those combos flowing. In the end, O'Malley looked gassed and unispired.
I want to see O'Malley come out with more confidence and strength. He's a beast on the feet at 135 pounds. Where was the swagger at UFC 306?
O'Malley bettors shouldn't change their strategy much from the first fight. He's now a sizeable underdog, so play him on the ML. A KO prop is also fine if you lower your unit size.
How To Bet Dvalishvili
"The Machine" has only grown stronger with each UFC fight, and, boy, did he look sharp vs Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 311. In that bout, Merab tangled with the boogeyman of the division, defended 13 of 15 takedown attempts, and tagged Umar with multiple strikes as the Russian's gas tank faded. The Umar bout followed a different game plan than his first fight against O'Malley, but that performance clearly gave the sportsbooks enough confidence to list Merab as nearly a 3-to-1 favorite against O'Malley in the rematch.
Merab's cardio is out of this world, and, with his constant movement and short stature, he's very hard to hit on the feet. That gives him a massive edge over O'Malley, who didn't have an answer for Merab on the mat.
For all those reasons, I'll be on Merab to win by decision again this time around. If Dvalishvili wins, it won't be by ground and pound since O'Malley's long limbs can help him fend off any sustained ground offense from Merab. This fight will be about control time again. That's Merab's bread and butter.
O'Malley vs Dvalishvili Betting Pick
Merab’s non-stop pressure and crazy cardio make him a nightmare for O’Malley, who just couldn’t get anything going in their first fight. I’m rolling with Merab to win by decision again. His pace and control should be too much for O’Malley to handle.
