Sean Brady is a -170 favorite vs Leon Edwards (+140 underdog) ahead of UFC London on March 22.
This welterweight main event marks Edwards' first fight since losing the belt to Belal Muhammad at UFC 304 in Manchester, England last summer. Brady subs into this fight for Jack Della Maddalena, who was promoted to a title shot in May.
The Edwards vs Brady odds have moved a bunch this week. Brady opened closer to -125, and the action has since poured in on the younger American.
Edwards vs Brady Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | +140 |
| Sean Brady | -170 |
Odds as of March 18
How to Bet Brady
Brady, 32, is a fierce grappler with a wicked arsenal of submissions. All three of his UFC finishes have come via sub, including an impressive kimura victory over Kelvin Gastelum at the end of 2023. MMA fans have long touted Brady as the truth at 170 pounds, so it's good to finally see him get close to the title picture.
Brady will use his takedown skills a ton in this fight. He lands 3.49 takedowns per 15 minutes, and Edwards (65% takedown defense) has proven to be incredibly vulnerable to such moves. Not only does Edwards have trouble stuffing takedowns, he also doesn't pop up right away. The Englishman let Muhammad land nine of 13 takedowns at UFC 304, leaving Belal with over 12 minutes of control time and Leon with just 47 significant strikes landed over five rounds.
That waiting period on the ground is where Brady will make his money. Brady has eliminated any cardio concerns and can work to a submission while wearing on Edwards' prone body with strikes. Muhammad and Kamaru Usman controlled Edwards for large portions of their respective matchups, but neither of those guys is a submission threat. Brady is a five-alarm fire on the ground, so I'll hedge my bets here with a double-chance play.
My best bet for the Brady bout is to take him by submission or decision at -130. It shortens the odds just enough and leaves the door open in case Brady just can't seal the deal.
How to Bet Edwards
Leon has six fights on his UFC slate where he's been taken down three or more times. He fared well against Usman and Colby Covington, but we know now those welterweights aren't what they used to be. At the same time, I think it's fair to question Edwards' power. His fateful headkick vs Usman at UFC 278 marks his only knockout in the last seven years. Against high-level competition, Edwards isn't a finisher.
Leon's lack of KO aptitude lets Brady go full throttle on his takedown-to-submission style, leaving me fully confident in the favorite here. That said, if you're betting Edwards, I'd take him to win by decision at +240.
Edwards vs Brady Pick: UFC London
Brady is a relentless grappler with a lethal submission game, perfectly suited to exploit Edwards' shaky takedown defense. With dominant ground skills and a proven ability to finish fights, the best bet is Brady by submission or decision at -130.
